DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00246.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84892528643
论文题名: Delayed southern hemisphere climate change induced by stratospheric ozone recovery, as projected by the CMIP5 models
作者: Barnes E.A. ; Barnes N.W. ; Polvani L.M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 2 起始页码: 852
结束页码: 867
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate response
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Montreal Protocols
; Sea ice concentration
; Southern Hemisphere
; Stratospheric ozone
; Surface temperatures
; Tropospheric circulation
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Ozone
; Ozone layer
; Recovery
; Sea ice
; Greenhouse gases
; air temperature
; atmospheric circulation
; climate change
; greenhouse gas
; jet stream
; ozone
; Southern Hemisphere
; stratosphere
; subtropical region
; troposphere
英文摘要: Stratospheric ozone is expected to recover by the end of this century because of the regulation of ozonedepleting substances by the Montreal Protocol. Targeted modeling studies have suggested that the climate response toozone recovery will greatly oppose the climate response to rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the extent of this cancellation remains unclear since only a few such studies are available. Here, a much larger set of simulations performed for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project is analyzed, which includes ozone recovery. It is shown that the closing of the ozone hole will cause a delay in summertime [December-February (DJF)] Southern Hemisphere climate change between now and 2045. Specifically, it is found that the position of the jet stream, the width of the subtropical dry zones, the seasonality of surface temperatures, and sea ice concentrations all exhibit significantly reduced summertime trends over the firsthalf of the twenty-first century as a consequence of ozone recovery. After 2045, forcing from GHG emissions begins to dominate the climate response. Finally, comparing the relative influences of future GHG emissions and historic ozone depletion, it is found that the simulated DJF tropospheric circulation changes between 1965 and 2005 (driven primarily by ozone depletion) are larger than the projected changes in any future scenario over the entiretwenty-first century. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51252
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Minnesota, Twin Cities, Minneapolis, MN, United States; Department of Applied Physics and Applied Math, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Barnes E.A.,Barnes N.W.,Polvani L.M.. Delayed southern hemisphere climate change induced by stratospheric ozone recovery, as projected by the CMIP5 models[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(2)