globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00282.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84907855788
论文题名:
Assessing the risk of persistent drought using climate model simulations and paleoclimate data
作者: Ault T.R.; Cole J.E.; Overpeck J.T.; Pederson G.T.; Meko D.M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期:20
起始页码: 7529
结束页码: 7549
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate model simulations ; Paleoclimates ; climate modeling ; climate prediction ; climate variation ; decadal variation ; drought ; paleoclimate ; rainfall ; semiarid region ; United States
英文摘要: Projected changes in global rainfall patterns will likely alter water supplies and ecosystems in semiarid regions during the coming century. Instrumental and paleoclimate data indicate that natural hydroclimate fluctuations tend to be more energetic at low (multidecadal to multicentury) than at high (interannual) frequencies. State-of-the-art global climate models do not capture this characteristic of hydroclimate variability, suggesting that the models underestimate the risk of future persistent droughts. Methods are developed here for assessing the risk of such events in the coming century using climate model projections as well as observational (paleoclimate) information. Where instrumental and paleoclimate data are reliable, these methods may provide a more complete view of prolonged drought risk. In the U.S. Southwest, for instance, state-of-the-art climate model projections suggest the risk of a decade-scale megadrought in the coming century is less than 50%; the analysis herein suggests that the risk is at least 80%, and may be higher than 90% in certain areas. The likelihood of longer-lived events (>35 yr) is between 20% and 50%, and the risk of an unprecedented 50-yr megadrought is nonnegligible under the most severe warming scenario (5%-10%). These findings are important to consider as adaptation and mitigation strategies are developed to cope with regional impacts of climate change, where population growth is high and multidecadal megadrought-worse than anything seen during the last 2000 years-would pose unprecedented challenges to water resources in the region. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.
资助项目: ASP, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ; NCAR, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ; NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ; NSF, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ; NSF, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ; NSF, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51363
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States; Department of Geosciences, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States; U.S. Geological Survey, Bozeman, MT, United States; Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States

Recommended Citation:
Ault T.R.,Cole J.E.,Overpeck J.T.,et al. Assessing the risk of persistent drought using climate model simulations and paleoclimate data[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(20)
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