DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00338.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84888047716
论文题名: Nonstationary Australasian teleconnections and implications for paleoclimate reconstructions
作者: Gallant A.J.E. ; Phipps S.J. ; Karoly D.J. ; Mullan A.B. ; Lorrey A.M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2013
卷: 26, 期: 22 起始页码: 8827
结束页码: 8849
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Annular mode
; Climate variability
; ENSO
; Multidecadal variability
; Paleoclimates
; Southern Hemisphere
; Atmospheric pressure
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Instruments
; Repair
; air temperature
; climate variation
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; paleoclimate
; precipitation assessment
; proxy climate record
; Southern Hemisphere
; teleconnection
; Australasia
英文摘要: The stationarity of relationships between local and remote climates is a necessary, yet implicit, assumption underlying many paleoclimate reconstructions. However, the assumption is tenuous for many seasonal relationships between interannual variations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the southern annular mode (SAM) and Australasian precipitation and mean temperatures. Nonstationary statistical relationships between local and remote climates on the 31-71-yr time scale, defined as a change in their strength and/or phase outside that expected from local climate noise, are detected on near-centennial time scales from instrumental data, climate model simulations, and paleoclimate proxies. The relationships between ENSO and SAM and Australasian precipitation were nonstationary at 21%-37% of Australasian stations from 1900 to 2009 and strongly covaried, suggesting common modulation. Control simulations from three coupled climate models produce ENSO-like and SAM-like patterns of variability, but differ in detail to the observed patterns in Australasia. However, the model teleconnections also display nonstationarity, in some cases for over 50% of the domain. Therefore, nonstationary local-remote climatic relationships are inherent in environments regulated by internal variability. The assessments using paleoclimate reconstructions are not robust because of extraneous noise associated with the paleoclimate proxies. Instrumental records provide the only means of calibrating and evaluating regional paleoclimate reconstructions. However, the length of Australasian instrumental observations may be too short to capture the near-centennial-scale variations in local-remote climatic relationships, potentially compromising these reconstructions. The uncertainty surrounding nonstationary teleconnections must be acknowledged and quantified. This should include interpreting nonstationarities in paleoclimate reconstructions using physically based frameworks. © 2013 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51538
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia; School of Geography and Environmental Science, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd., Wellington, New Zealand; National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd., Auckland, New Zealand
Recommended Citation:
Gallant A.J.E.,Phipps S.J.,Karoly D.J.,et al. Nonstationary Australasian teleconnections and implications for paleoclimate reconstructions[J]. Journal of Climate,2013-01-01,26(22)