DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00297.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84862195046
论文题名: Systematic model error: The impact of increased horizontal resolution versus improved stochastic and deterministic parameterizations
作者: Berner J. ; Jung T. ; Palmer T.N.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 14 起始页码: 4946
结束页码: 4962
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Bias
; Coupled waves
; Dynamical core
; Extratropics
; Forcings
; Horizontal resolution
; Model errors
; Model refinement
; Model uncertainties
; Parameterizations
; Physical process
; Posteriori
; Reliable estimates
; Stochasticity
; Subgrid scale
; Systematic bias
; Systematic models
; Three models
; Unresolved scale
; Zonal flows
; Climate models
; Errors
; Parameterization
; Stochastic systems
; Systematic errors
; Tropics
; Uncertainty analysis
; Stochastic models
; climate modeling
; error analysis
; frequency analysis
; Northern Hemisphere
; numerical model
; parameterization
; precipitation (climatology)
; stochasticity
; uncertainty analysis
; zonal flow
英文摘要: Long-standing systematic model errors in both tropics and extratropics of the ECMWF model run at a horizontal resolution typical for climate models are investigated. Based on the hypothesis that the misrepresentation of unresolved scales contributes to the systematic model error, three model refinements aimed at their representation-fluctuating or deterministically-are investigated. Increasing horizontal resolution to explicitly simulate smaller-scale features, representing subgrid-scale fluctuations by a stochastic parameterization, and improving the deterministic physics parameterizations all lead to a decrease in the systematic bias of the Northern Hemispheric circulation. These refinements reduce the overly zonal flow and improve the model's ability to capture the frequency of blocking. However, the model refinements differ greatly in their impact in the tropics. While improving the deterministic and introducing stochastic parameterizations reduces the systematic precipitation bias and improves the characteristics of convectively coupled waves and tropical variability in general, increasing horizontal resolution has little impact. The fact that different model refinements can lead to reductions in systematic model error is consistent with the hypothesis that unresolved scales play an important role. At the same time, this degeneracy of the response to different forcings can lead to compensating model errors. Hence, if one takes the view that stochastic parameterization should be an important element of next-generation climate models, if only to provide reliable estimates of model uncertainty, then a fundamental conclusion of this study is that stochasticity should be incorporated within the design of physical process parameterizations and improvements of the dynamical core and not added a posteriori. © 2012 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52344
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Alfred-Wegener-Institut für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, Germany; ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, and Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Berner J.,Jung T.,Palmer T.N.. Systematic model error: The impact of increased horizontal resolution versus improved stochastic and deterministic parameterizations[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(14)