DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3361-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84989184538
论文题名: Projection of future changes in the frequency of intense tropical cyclones
作者: Sugi M. ; Murakami H. ; Yoshida K.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2017
卷: 49, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 619
结束页码: 632
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Ensemble high-resolution global models
; Intense tropical cyclones
; Intensity bias correction
; Statistical downscaling
英文摘要: Recent modeling studies have consistently shown that the global frequency of tropical cyclones will decrease but that of very intense tropical cyclones may increase in the future warmer climate. It has been noted, however, that the uncertainty in the projected changes in the frequency of very intense tropical cyclones, particularly the changes in the regional frequency, is very large. Here we present a projection of the changes in the frequency of intense tropical cyclones estimated by a statistical downscaling of ensemble of many high-resolution global model experiments. The results indicate that the changes in the frequency of very intense (category 4 and 5) tropical cyclones are not uniform on the globe. The frequency will increase in most regions but decrease in the south western part of Northwest Pacific, the South Pacific, and eastern part of the South Indian Ocean. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: MEXT, Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology
; University of Tsukuba
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53186
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Meteorological Research Institute, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Sugi M.,Murakami H.,Yoshida K.. Projection of future changes in the frequency of intense tropical cyclones[J]. Climate Dynamics,2017-01-01,49(2017-01-02)