globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3043-5
Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84975706478
Title:
Effects of excessive equatorial cold tongue bias on the projections of tropical Pacific climate change. Part I: the warming pattern in CMIP5 multi-model ensemble
Author: Li G.; Xie S.-P.; Du Y.; Luo Y.
Source Publication: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
Publishing Year: 2016
Volume: 47, Issue:12
pages begin: 3817
pages end: 3831
Language: 英语
Keyword: Convective feedback ; El Niño-like warming pattern ; Equatorial Pacific cold tongue ; Model error ; Observational constraint ; Western Pacific precipitation
English Abstract: The excessive cold tongue error in the equatorial Pacific has persisted in several generations of climate models. Based on the historical simulations and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 experiments in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble (MME), this study finds that models with an excessive westward extension of cold tongue and insufficient equatorial western Pacific precipitation tend to project a weaker east-minus-west gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) warming along the equatorial Pacific under increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. This La Niña-like error of tropical Pacific SST warming is consistent with our understanding of negative SST-convective feedback over the western Pacific warm pool. Based on this relationship between the present simulations and future projections, the present study applies an “observational constraint” of equatorial western Pacific precipitation to calibrate the projections of tropical Pacific climate change. After the corrections, CMIP5 models robustly project an El Niño-like warming pattern, with a MME mean increase by a factor of 2.3 in east-minus-west gradient of equatorial Pacific SST warming and reduced inter-model uncertainty. Corrections in projected changes in tropical precipitation and atmospheric circulation are physically consistent. This study suggests that a realistic cold tongue simulation would lead to a more reliable tropical Pacific climate projection. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
Funding Project: NSF, National Science Foundation ; NSFC, National Natural Science Foundation of China ; NSFC, National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
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Document Type: 期刊论文
Identifier: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53429
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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Affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 164 West Xingang Road, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States; Physical Oceanography Laboratory/Qingdao Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology, Key Laboratory of Ocean–Atmosphere Interaction and Climate in Universities of Shandong, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, Shandong, China

Recommended Citation:
Li G.,Xie S.-P.,Du Y.,et al. Effects of excessive equatorial cold tongue bias on the projections of tropical Pacific climate change. Part I: the warming pattern in CMIP5 multi-model ensemble[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,47(12)
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