DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-2998-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957597050
论文题名: Interpreting the inter-model spread in regional precipitation projections in the tropics: role of surface evaporation and cloud radiative effects
作者: Oueslati B. ; Bony S. ; Risi C. ; Dufresne J.-L.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 47, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 2801
结束页码: 2815
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Cloud radiative effects
; Evaporation
; Precipitation projections uncertainties
英文摘要: In this study, we investigate and quantify different contributors to inter-model differences in regional precipitation projections among CMIP5 climate models. Contributors to the spread are very contrasted between land and ocean. While circulation changes dominate the spread over oceans and continental coasts, thermodynamic changes associated with water vapor increase dominate over inland regions. The inter-model spread in the dynamic component is associated with the change in atmospheric radiative cooling with warming, which largely relates to atmospheric cloud radiative effects. Differences in the thermodynamic component result from the differences in the change in surface evaporation that is explained by decreases in surface humidity and limited surface water availability over land. Secondary contributions to the inter-model spread in thermodynamic and dynamic components result respectively from present-day climatology (owing to the Clausius–Clapeyron scaling) and from the shape of the vertical velocity profile associated with changes in surface temperature gradients. Advancing the physical understanding of the cloud-circulation and precipitation-evaporation couplings and improving their representation in climate models may stand the best chance to reduce uncertainty in regional precipitation projections. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53477
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: LMD, UMR 8539, IPSL, CNRS/Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France; CRC, UMR 6282 Biogéosciences, CNRS/Université de Bourgogne – Franche-Comté, Dijon, France
Recommended Citation:
Oueslati B.,Bony S.,Risi C.,et al. Interpreting the inter-model spread in regional precipitation projections in the tropics: role of surface evaporation and cloud radiative effects[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,47(2017-09-10)