DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2879-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84946110058
论文题名: Impact of land-surface initialization on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts over Europe
作者: Prodhomme C. ; Doblas-Reyes F. ; Bellprat O. ; Dutra E.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 47, 期: 2017-03-04 起始页码: 919
结束页码: 935
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Extreme
; Heat wave
; Land-surface initialization
; Seasonal forecasting
英文摘要: Land surfaces and soil conditions are key sources of climate predictability at the seasonal time scale. In order to estimate how the initialization of the land surface affects the predictability at seasonal time scale, we run two sets of seasonal hindcasts with the general circulation model EC-Earth2.3. The initialization of those hindcasts is done either with climatological or realistic land initialization in May using the ERA-Land re-analysis. Results show significant improvements in the initialized run occurring up to the last forecast month. The prediction of near-surface summer temperatures and precipitation at the global scale and over Europe are improved, as well as the warm extremes prediction. As an illustration, we show that the 2010 Russian heat wave is only predicted when soil moisture is initialized. No significant improvement is found for the retrospective prediction of the 2003 European heat wave, suggesting this event to be mainly large-scale driven. Thus, we confirm that late-spring soil moisture conditions can be decisive in triggering high-impact events in the following summer in Europe. Accordingly, accurate land-surface initial conditions are essential for seasonal predictions. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53581
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences (IC3), Barcelona, Spain; Catalan Institute for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain; Barcelona Supercomputing Center-Centro Nacional de Supercomputación (BSC-CNS), Barcelona, Spain; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Prodhomme C.,Doblas-Reyes F.,Bellprat O.,et al. Impact of land-surface initialization on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts over Europe[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,47(2017-03-04)