DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2674-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84959170410
论文题名: Attribution of extreme temperature changes during 1951–2010
作者: Kim Y.-H. ; Min S.-K. ; Zhang X. ; Zwiers F. ; Alexander L.V. ; Donat M.G. ; Tung Y.-S.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 46, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 1769
结束页码: 1782
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Anthropogenic forcing
; CMIP5 models
; Detection and attribution
; Extreme temperature
; Natural variability
英文摘要: An attribution analysis of extreme temperature changes is conducted using updated observations (HadEX2) and multi-model climate simulation (CMIP5) datasets for an extended period of 1951–2010. Compared to previous HadEX/CMIP3-based results, which identified human contributions to the observed warming of extreme temperatures on global and regional scales, the current results provide better agreement with observations, particularly for the intensification of warm extremes. Removing the influence of two major modes of natural internal variability (the Arctic Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation) from observations further improves attribution results, reducing the model-observation discrepancy in cold extremes. An optimal fingerprinting technique is used to compare observed changes in annual extreme temperature indices of coldest night and day (TNn, TXn) and warmest night and day (TNx, TXx) with multi-model simulated changes that were simulated under natural-plus-anthropogenic and natural-only (NAT) forcings. Extreme indices are standardized for better intercomparisons between datasets and locations prior to analysis and averaged over spatial domains from global to continental regions following a previous study. Results confirm previous HadEX/CMIP3-based results in which anthropogenic (ANT) signals are robustly detected in the increase in global mean and northern continental regional means of the four indices of extreme temperatures. The detected ANT signals are also clearly separable from the response to NAT forcing, and results are generally insensitive to the use of different model samples as well as different data availability. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53787
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, Gyeongbuk, South Korea; Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada; Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC, Canada; Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taipei, Taiwan
Recommended Citation:
Kim Y.-H.,Min S.-K.,Zhang X.,et al. Attribution of extreme temperature changes during 1951–2010[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,46(2017-05-06)