DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2445-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84943813555
论文题名: Can metric-based approaches really improve multi-model climate projections? The case of summer temperature change in France
作者: Boé J. ; Terray L.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 45, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 1913
结束页码: 1928
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; France
; Metrics
; Multi-model
; Uncertainties
英文摘要: The multi-model ensemble mean is generally used as a default approach to estimate climate change signals, based on the implicit hypothesis that all models provide equally credible projections. As this hypothesis is unlikely to be true, it is in theory possible to obtain more realistic projections by giving more weight to more realistic models according to a relevant metric, if such a metric exists. This alternative approach however raises many methodological issues. In this study, a methodological framework based on a perfect model approach is described. It is intended to provide some useful elements of answer to these methodological issues. The basic idea is to take a random climate model and treat it as if it were the truth (or “synthetic observations”). Then, all the other members from the multi-model ensemble are used to derive thanks to a metric-based approach a posterior estimate of the future change, based on the synthetic observation of the metric. This posterior estimate can be compared to the synthetic observation of future change to evaluate the skill of the approach. This general framework is applied to future summer temperature change in France. A process-based metric, related to cloud-temperature interactions is tested, with different simple statistical methods to combine multiple model results (e.g. weighted average, model selection, regression.) Except in presence of large observational errors in the metric, metric-based methods using the metric related to cloud temperature interactions generally lead to large reductions of errors compared to the ensemble mean, but the sensitivity to methodological choices is important. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: ANR, Agence Nationale de la Recherche
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53989
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: URA1875 CNRS/CERFACS, Toulouse, France
Recommended Citation:
Boé J.,Terray L.. Can metric-based approaches really improve multi-model climate projections? The case of summer temperature change in France[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,45(2017-07-08)