DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2215-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84939878957
论文题名: A spatial–temporal projection model for 10–30 day rainfall forecast in South China
作者: Hsu P.-C. ; Li T. ; You L. ; Gao J. ; Ren H.-L.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 44, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 1227
结束页码: 1244
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Extended range forecast
; Low-frequency oscillation
; Spatial–temporal projection model
英文摘要: Extended-range (10–30 days) forecast, lying between well-developed short-range weather and long-range (monthly and seasonal) climate predictions, is one of the most challenging forecast currently faced by operational meteorological centers around the world. In this study, a set of spatial–temporal projection (STP) models was developed to predict low-frequency rainfall events at lead times of 5–30 days. We focused on early monsoon rainy season (mid April–mid July) in South China. To ensure that the model developed can be used for real-time forecast, a non-filtering method was developed to extract the low-frequency atmospheric signals of 10–60 days without using a band-pass filter. The empirical models were built based on 12-year (1996–2007) data, and independent forecast was then conducted for a 5 year (2008–2012) period. The assessment of the 5-year forecast of rainfall over South China indicates that the ensemble prediction of the STP models achieved a useful skill (with a temporal correlation coefficient exceeding 95 % confidence level) at a lead time of 20 days. The amplitude error was generally less than one standard deviation at all lead times of 5–30 days. Furthermore, the STP models provided useful probabilistic forecasts with the ranked probability skill score between 0.3–0.5 up to 30-day forecast in advance. The evaluation demonstrated that the STP models exhibited useful 10–30 days forecast skills for real-time extended-range rainfall prediction in South China. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: NSFC, China Meteorological Administration
; CMA, China Meteorological Administration
; CMA, China Meteorological Administration
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54188
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Earth System Modeling Center and Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, College of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, United States; Fujian Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Fuzhou, Fujian, China; Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Hsu P.-C.,Li T.,You L.,et al. A spatial–temporal projection model for 10–30 day rainfall forecast in South China[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,44(2017-05-06)