DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2071-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84893661059
论文题名: Interannual predictability of Arctic sea ice in a global climate model: regional contrasts and temporal evolution
作者: Germe A. ; Chevallier M. ; Salas y Mélia D. ; Sanchez-Gomez E. ; Cassou C.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 43, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 2519
结束页码: 2538
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Arctic sea ice
; CMIP5
; Decadal experiments
; Near term climate prediction
; Prognostic potential predictability
英文摘要: The predictability of the Arctic sea ice is investigated at the interannual time scale using decadal experiments performed within the framework of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project with the CNRM-CM5.1 coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate model. The predictability of summer Arctic sea ice extent is found to be weak and not to exceed 2 years. In contrast, robust prognostic potential predictability (PPP) up to several years is found for winter sea ice extent and volume. This predictability is regionally contrasted. The marginal seas in the Atlantic sector and the central Arctic show the highest potential predictability, while the marginal seas in the Pacific sector are barely predictable. The PPP is shown to decrease drastically in the more recent period. Regarding sea ice extent, this decrease is explained by a strong reduction of its natural variability in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian Seas due to the quasi-disappearance of the marginal ice zone in the center of the Greenland Sea. In contrast, the decrease of predictability of sea ice volume arises from the combined effect of a reduction of its natural variability and an increase in its chaotic nature. The latter is attributed to a thinning of sea ice cover over the whole Arctic, making it more sensitive to atmospheric fluctuations. In contrast to the PPP assessment, the prediction skill as measured by the anomaly correlation coefficient is found to be mostly due to external forcing. Yet, in agreement with the PPP assessment, a weak added value of the initialization is found in the Atlantic sector. Nevertheless, the trend-independent component of this skill is not statistically significant beyond the forecast range of 3 months. These contrasted findings regarding potential predictability and prediction skill arising from the initialization suggest that substantial improvements can be made in order to enhance the prediction skill. © 2014, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54460
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques/Groupe d’Etude de l’atmosphère Météorologique (CNRM/GAME), Météo-France, Toulouse, France; Mercator-Ocean, Toulouse, France; Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS)/Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Toulouse, France
Recommended Citation:
Germe A.,Chevallier M.,Salas y Mélia D.,et al. Interannual predictability of Arctic sea ice in a global climate model: regional contrasts and temporal evolution[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,43(2017-09-10)