DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1731-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84888021902
论文题名: European temperatures in CMIP5: Origins of present-day biases and future uncertainties
作者: Cattiaux J. ; Douville H. ; Peings Y.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 41, 期: 2017-11-12 起始页码: 2889
结束页码: 2907
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate sensitivity
; European temperatures
; Global climate models
; Model evaluation
; North-Atlantic dynamics
英文摘要: European temperatures and their projected changes under the 8.5 W/m2 Representative Concentration Pathway scenario are evaluated in an ensemble of 33 global climate models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Respective contributions of large-scale dynamics and local processes to both biases and changes in temperatures, and to the inter-model spread, are then investigated from a recently proposed methodology based on weather regimes. On average, CMIP5 models exhibit a cold bias in winter, especially in Northern Europe. They overestimate summer temperatures in Central Europe, in association with a greater diurnal range than observed. The projected temperature increase is stronger in summer than in winter, with the highest summer warming occurring over Mediterranean regions. Links between biases and sensitivities are evidenced in winter, suggesting a potential influence of snow cover biases on the projected surface warming. A brief analysis of daily temperature extremes suggests that the intra-seasonal variability is projected to decrease (slightly increase) in winter (summer). Then, in order to understand model discrepancies in both present-day and future climates, we disentangle effects of large-scale atmospheric dynamics and regional physical processes. In particular, in winter, CMIP5 models simulate a stronger North-Atlantic jet stream than observed and, in contrast with CMIP3 results, the majority of them suggests an increased frequency of the negative phase of the North-Atlantic Oscillation under future warming. While large-scale circulation only has a minor contribution to ensemble-mean biases or changes, which are primarily dominated by non-dynamical processes, it substantially affects the inter-model spread. Finally, other sources of uncertainties, including the North-Atlantic warming and local radiative feedbacks related to snow cover and clouds, are briefly discussed. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54720
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: CNRM-GAME, UMR CNRS/Météo-France, 42 av. G. Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse, France
Recommended Citation:
Cattiaux J.,Douville H.,Peings Y.. European temperatures in CMIP5: Origins of present-day biases and future uncertainties[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,41(2017-11-12)