DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1632-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84884703165
论文题名: A regional climate model downscaling projection of China future climate change
作者: Liu S. ; Gao W. ; Liang X.-Z.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 41, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 1871
结束页码: 1884
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CCSM
; China
; Climate change
; Emission scenarios
; RegCM3
; Regional climate model
英文摘要: Climate changes over China from the present (1990-1999) to future (2046-2055) under the A1FI (fossil fuel intensive) and A1B (balanced) emission scenarios are projected using the Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) nests with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM). For the present climate, RegCM3 downscaling corrects several major deficiencies in the driving CCSM, especially the wet and cold biases over the Sichuan Basin. As compared with CCSM, RegCM3 produces systematic higher spatial pattern correlation coefficients with observations for precipitation and surface air temperature except during winter. The projected future precipitation changes differ largely between CCSM and RegCM3, with strong regional and seasonal dependence. The RegCM3 downscaling produces larger regional precipitation trends (both decreases and increases) than the driving CCSM. Contrast to substantial trend differences projected by CCSM, RegCM3 produces similar precipitation spatial patterns under different scenarios except autumn. Surface air temperature is projected to consistently increase by both CCSM and RegCM3, with greater warming under A1FI than A1B. The result demonstrates that different scenarios can induce large uncertainties even with the same RCM-GCM nesting system. Largest temperature increases are projected in the Tibetan Plateau during winter and high-latitude areas in the northern China during summer under both scenarios. This indicates that high elevation and northern regions are more vulnerable to climate change. Notable discrepancies for precipitation and surface air temperature simulated by RegCM3 with the driving conditions of CCSM versus the model for interdisciplinary research on climate under the same A1B scenario further complicated the uncertainty issue. The geographic distributions for precipitation difference among various simulations are very similar between the present and future climate with very high spatial pattern correlation coefficients. The result suggests that the model present climate biases are systematically propagate into the future climate projections. The impacts of the model present biases on projected future trends are, however, highly nonlinear and regional specific, and thus cannot be simply removed by a linear method. A model with more realistic present climate simulations is anticipated to yield future climate projections with higher credibility. © 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54781
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, College Park, MD, 20740, United States; Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, China; Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Oceanic Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20740, United States
Recommended Citation:
Liu S.,Gao W.,Liang X.-Z.. A regional climate model downscaling projection of China future climate change[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,41(2017-07-08)