DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1032-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84857442634
论文题名: Computing the distribution of return levels of extreme warm temperatures for future climate projections
作者: Pausader M. ; Bernie D. ; Parey S. ; Nogaj M.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2012
卷: 38, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 1003
结束页码: 1015
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Extreme values
; Probability distributions
英文摘要: In order to take into account uncertainties in the future climate projections there is a growing demand for probabilistic projections of climate change. This paper presents a methodology for producing such a probabilistic analysis of future temperature extremes. The 20- and 100-years return levels are obtained from that of the normalized variable and the changes in mean and standard deviation given by climate models for the desired future periods. Uncertainty in future change of these extremes is quantified using a multi-model ensemble and a perturbed physics ensemble. The probability density functions of future return levels are computed at a representative location from the joint probability distribution of mean and standard deviation changes given by the two combined ensembles of models. For the studied location, the 100-years return level at the end of the century is lower than 41°C with an 80% confidence. Then, as the number of model simulations is low to compute a reliable distribution, two techniques proposed in the literature (local pattern scaling and ANOVA) have been used to infer the changes in mean and standard deviation for the combinations of RCM and GCM which have not been run. The ANOVA technique leads to better results for the reconstruction of the mean changes, whereas the two methods fail to correctly infer the changes in standard deviation. As standard deviation change has a major impact on return level change, there is a need to improve the models and the different techniques regarding the variance changes. © 2011 Springer-Verlag. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55366
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: EDF/R and D, 6 Quai Watier, 78 401 Chatou Cedex, France; Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Pausader M.,Bernie D.,Parey S.,et al. Computing the distribution of return levels of extreme warm temperatures for future climate projections[J]. Climate Dynamics,2012-01-01,38(2017-05-06)