DOI: 10.1002/2013GL057630
论文题名: Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: The role of ensemble dispersion
作者: Ho C.K. ; Hawkins E. ; Shaffrey L. ; Bröcker J. ; Hermanson L. ; Murphy J.M. ; Smith D.M. ; Eade R.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8422
EISSN: 1944-8153
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 21 起始页码: 5770
结束页码: 5775
语种: 英语
英文关键词: decadal prediction
; dispersion
; ensemble
; reliability
; seasonal
Scopus关键词: Decadal predictions
; ensemble
; Forecast probabilities
; Initial condition ensembles
; Interannual variability
; Relative frequencies
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; seasonal
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Dispersion (waves)
; Dispersions
; Oceanography
; Reliability
; Forecasting
; climate modeling
; dispersion
; ensemble forecasting
; error analysis
; forecasting method
; prediction
; reliability analysis
; sea surface temperature
; temporal variation
; timescale
英文摘要: Useful probabilistic climate forecasts on decadal timescales should be reliable (i.e., forecast probabilities match the observed relative frequencies) but this is seldom examined. This paper assesses a necessary condition for reliability, which the ratio of ensemble spread to forecast error being close to one, for seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature retrospective forecasts from the Met Office Decadal Prediction System. Factors which may affect reliability are diagnosed by comparing this spread-error ratio for an initial condition ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles for initialized and uninitialized predictions. At lead times less than 2 years, the initialized ensembles tend to be underdispersed and produce overconfident and hence unreliable forecasts. For longer lead times, all three ensembles are predominantly overdispersed. Such overdispersion is primarily related to excessive interannual variability in the climate model. These findings highlight the need to carefully evaluate simulated variability in seasonal and decadal prediction systems. Key Points Spread-error ratio of seasonal to decadal climate model predictions are assessed Initialized predictions become more overdispersed as lead time increases Overdispersion at long lead times is caused by excessive variability in model © 2013 The Authors. Geophysical Research Letters published by Wiley on behalf of the American Geophysical Union. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84887297298&doi=10.1002%2f2013GL057630&partnerID=40&md5=204bb42763387f9c42d7cc10b85715dd
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/5686
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, Reading, RG6 6BB, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Ho C.K.,Hawkins E.,Shaffrey L.,et al. Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: The role of ensemble dispersion[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(21).