globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13355
论文题名:
Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America
作者: Boit A.; Sakschewski B.; Boysen L.; Cano-Crespo A.; Clement J.; Garcia-alaniz N.; Kok K.; Kolb M.; Langerwisch F.; Rammig A.; Sachse R.; van Eupen M.; von Bloh W.; Clara Zemp D.; Thonicke K.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2016
卷: 22, 期:11
起始页码: 3689
结束页码: 3701
语种: 英语
英文关键词: attribution ; biome shifts ; climate change ; land-use change ; Latin America
Scopus关键词: biome ; climate change ; climate effect ; global change ; habitat loss ; land use change ; Latin America ; biodiversity ; climate ; climate change ; ecosystem ; South and Central America ; Biodiversity ; Climate ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Latin America
英文摘要: Climate change and land-use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental-scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio-economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5–6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land-use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land-use expansion is halted by the mid-century. We suggest that constraining land-use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate-change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio-economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
资助项目: The research leading to these results has received partial funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n° 283093 – The Role Of Biodiversity In climate change mitigatioN (ROBIN).
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被引频次[WOS]:26   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61274
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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作者单位: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, Germany; Department of Geography, Humboldt University of Berlin, Newtonstr. 15, Berlin, Germany; Alterra Wageningen University and Research Centre, Earth Observation and Environmental Informatics, Wageningen, Netherlands; National Commission for the Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity, Mexico City, Mexico; Soil Geography and Landscape Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; TUM School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Technische Universität München, Freising, Germany; Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Boit A.,Sakschewski B.,Boysen L.,et al. Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America[J]. Global Change Biology,2016-01-01,22(11)
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