globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13106
论文题名:
Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift
作者: Reid P.C.; Hari R.E.; Beaugrand G.; Livingstone D.M.; Marty C.; Straile D.; Barichivich J.; Goberville E.; Adrian R.; Aono Y.; Brown R.; Foster J.; Groisman P.; Hélaouët P.; Hsu H.-H.; Kirby R.; Knight J.; Kraberg A.; Li J.; Lo T.-T.; Myneni R.B.; North R.P.; Pounds J.A.; Sparks T.; Stübi R.; Tian Y.; Wiltshire K.H.; Xiao D.; Zhu Z.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2016
卷: 22, 期:2
起始页码: 682
结束页码: 703
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate ; Earth systems ; Global change ; Regime shift ; Statistical analysis ; Time series ; Volcanic forcing
Scopus关键词: climate ; climate change ; history ; principal component analysis ; statistical model ; temperature ; theoretical model ; volcano ; Climate ; Climate Change ; History, 20th Century ; Models, Statistical ; Models, Theoretical ; Principal Component Analysis ; Temperature ; Volcanic Eruptions
英文摘要: Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61498
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth, United Kingdom; Marine Institute, Plymouth University, Drake Circus, Plymouth, United Kingdom; Marine Biological Association of the UK, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth, United Kingdom; Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Überlandstrasse 133, Dübendorf, Switzerland; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Laboratoire d'Océanologie et de Géosciences (LOG), UMR 8187 LOG, Université des Sciences et Technologies de Lille, Wimereux, France; WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Flüelastrasse 11, Davos, Switzerland; Department of Biology, Limnological Institute, University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany; Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, L'Orme des Merisiers, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Department of Ecosystem Research, Leibniz- Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Müggelseedamm 301, Berlin, Germany; Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Osaka Prefecture University, Sakai, Japan; Climate Research Division, Science and Technology Branch, Environment Canada Ouranos, 550 Sherbrooke St. West, 19th Floor, Montréal, QC, Canada; Code 917, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States; National Centers for Environment Information - Center for Weather and Climate, Federal Building, 151 Patton Avenue, Asheville, NC, United States; P.P. Shirshov Institute for Oceanology, RAS, 36 Nakhimovsky Avenue, Moscow, Russian Federation; Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, 128 Academia Road, Section 2, Nankang, Taipei, Taiwan; Met Office, Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom; Alfred-Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Biologische Anstalt Helgoland, Kurpromenade 201, Helgoland, Germany; College of Global Change and Earth System Science (GCESS), Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing, China; Weather Forecast Center, Central Weather Bureau, 64 Gongyuan Road, Taipei, Taiwan; Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, 685 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA, United States; Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute of Coastal Research, Max-Planck-Str. 1, Geesthacht, Germany; Monteverde Cloud Forest Preserve, Tropical Science Center, Santa Elena, Puntarenas, Costa Rica; Institute of Zoology, Poznań University of Life Sciences, Wojska Polskiego 71 C, Poznań, Poland; Faculty of Engineering, Environment and Computing, Coventry University, Coventry, United Kingdom; Fachgebiet für Ökoklimatologie, Technische Universität München, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, Freising, Germany; Institute for Advanced Study, Technische Universität München, Lichtenbergstrasse 2a, Garching, Germany; Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss, Ch. de l'Aérologie 1, Payerne, Switzerland; Fisheries College, Ocean University of China, Yushan Road 5, Qingdao, China; Japan Sea National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, Chuo-ku, Niigata, Japan; Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Center for Applications of Spatial Information Technologies in Public Health, Beijing, China

Recommended Citation:
Reid P.C.,Hari R.E.,Beaugrand G.,et al. Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift[J]. Global Change Biology,2016-01-01,22(2)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Reid P.C.]'s Articles
[Hari R.E.]'s Articles
[Beaugrand G.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Reid P.C.]'s Articles
[Hari R.E.]'s Articles
[Beaugrand G.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Reid P.C.]‘s Articles
[Hari R.E.]‘s Articles
[Beaugrand G.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.