DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12888
论文题名: Characterizing differences in precipitation regimes of extreme wet and dry years: Implications for climate change experiments
作者: Knapp A.K. ; Hoover D.L. ; Wilcox K.R. ; Avolio M.L. ; Koerner S.E. ; La Pierre K.J. ; Loik M.E. ; Luo Y. ; Sala O.E. ; Smith M.D.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2015
卷: 21, 期: 7 起始页码: 2624
结束页码: 2633
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change experiments
; Climate extremes
; Drought
; Ecoregions
; Global patterns
; Precipitation
; Rainfall patterns
Scopus关键词: climate change
; drought
; ecoregion
; experimental study
; extreme event
; hydrological cycle
; precipitation (climatology)
; rainfall
英文摘要: Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle and is expected to increase the frequency of extreme wet and dry years. Beyond precipitation amount, extreme wet and dry years may differ in other ways, such as the number of precipitation events, event size, and the time between events. We assessed 1614 long-term (100 year) precipitation records from around the world to identify key attributes of precipitation regimes, besides amount, that distinguish statistically extreme wet from extreme dry years. In general, in regions where mean annual precipitation (MAP) exceeded 1000 mm, precipitation amounts in extreme wet and dry years differed from average years by ~40% and 30%, respectively. The magnitude of these deviations increased to >60% for dry years and to >150% for wet years in arid regions (MAP<500 mm). Extreme wet years were primarily distinguished from average and extreme dry years by the presence of multiple extreme (large) daily precipitation events (events >99th percentile of all events); these occurred twice as often in extreme wet years compared to average years. In contrast, these large precipitation events were rare in extreme dry years. Less important for distinguishing extreme wet from dry years were mean event size and frequency, or the number of dry days between events. However, extreme dry years were distinguished from average years by an increase in the number of dry days between events. These precipitation regime attributes consistently differed between extreme wet and dry years across 12 major terrestrial ecoregions from around the world, from deserts to the tropics. Thus, we recommend that climate change experiments and model simulations incorporate these differences in key precipitation regime attributes, as well as amount into treatments. This will allow experiments to more realistically simulate extreme precipitation years and more accurately assess the ecological consequences. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61698
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Department of Biology, Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; Department of Biology, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, United States; Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, BerkeleyCA, United States; Department of Environmental Studies, University of California, Santa CruzCA, United States; Department of Microbiology and Plant Biology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States; School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Knapp A.K.,Hoover D.L.,Wilcox K.R.,et al. Characterizing differences in precipitation regimes of extreme wet and dry years: Implications for climate change experiments[J]. Global Change Biology,2015-01-01,21(7)