DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13005
论文题名: Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?
作者: Liao W. ; Elison Timm O. ; Zhang C. ; Atkinson C.T. ; Lapointe D.A. ; Samuel M.D.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2015
卷: 21, 期: 12 起始页码: 4342
结束页码: 4352
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Avian malaria
; Climate model
; Hawaiian forest birds
; Mathematical modeling
; Mosquito vector
Scopus关键词: avifauna
; bird
; climate change
; climate effect
; disease vector
; extinction
; forest ecosystem
; future prospect
; malaria
; mathematical analysis
; risk assessment
; warming
; Hawaii [United States]
; United States
; Aves
; Plasmodium relictum
; altitude
; animal
; biological model
; bird
; climate change
; forest
; Hawaii
; Malaria, Avian
; parasitology
; physiology
; Plasmodium
; population dynamics
; season
; species extinction
; transmission
; Altitude
; Animals
; Birds
; Climate Change
; Extinction, Biological
; Forests
; Hawaii
; Malaria, Avian
; Models, Biological
; Plasmodium
; Population Dynamics
; Seasons
英文摘要: Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61715
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States; Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, Albany, NY, United States; International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawai'i, Honolulu, HI, United States; U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center, Hawai'i National Park, HI, United States; U.S. Geological Survey, Wisconsin Cooperative Wildlife Research Unit, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States
Recommended Citation:
Liao W.,Elison Timm O.,Zhang C.,et al. Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?[J]. Global Change Biology,2015-01-01,21(12)