globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1002/2016JD026386
The impact of stochastic physics on tropical rainfall variability in global climate models on daily to weekly time scales
Author: Watson P.A.G.; Berner J.; Corti S.; Davini P.; von Hardenberg J.; Sanchez C.; Weisheimer A.; Palmer T.N.
Source Publication: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
Publishing Year: 2017
Volume: 122, Issue:11
pages begin: 5738
pages end: 5762
Language: 英语
Keyword: climate modeling ; stochastic parameterization ; stochastic physics ; tropical precipitation ; tropical variability
English Abstract: Many global atmospheric models have too little precipitation variability in the tropics on daily to weekly time scales and also a poor representation of tropical precipitation extremes associated with intense convection. Stochastic parameterizations have the potential to mitigate this problem by representing unpredictable subgrid variability that is left out of deterministic models. We evaluate the impact on the statistics of tropical rainfall of two stochastic schemes: the stochastically perturbed parameterization tendency scheme (SPPT) and stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme (SKEBS), in three climate models: EC-Earth, the Met Office Unified Model, and the Community Atmosphere Model, version 4. The schemes generally improve the statistics of simulated tropical rainfall variability, particularly by increasing the frequency of heavy rainfall events, reducing its persistence and increasing the high-frequency component of its variability. There is a large range in the size of the impact between models, with EC-Earth showing the largest improvements. The improvements are greater than those obtained by increasing horizontal resolution to ∼20 km. Stochastic physics also strongly affects projections of future changes in the frequency of extreme tropical rainfall in EC-Earth. This indicates that small-scale variability that is unresolved and unpredictable in these models has an important role in determining tropical climate variability statistics. Using these schemes, and improved schemes currently under development, is therefore likely to be important for producing good simulations of tropical variability and extremes in the present day and future. ©2017. The Authors.
Funding Project: 641727
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Document Type: 期刊论文
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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Affiliation: Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC-CNR), Bologna, Italy; Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/IPSL, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, France; Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC-CNR), Torino, Italy; Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Watson P.A.G.,Berner J.,Corti S.,et al. The impact of stochastic physics on tropical rainfall variability in global climate models on daily to weekly time scales[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2017-01-01,122(11)
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