DOI: 10.1002/grl.50404
论文题名: Future European temperature change uncertainties reduced by using land heat flux observations
作者: Stegehuis A.I. ; Teuling A.J. ; Ciais P. ; Vautard R. ; Jung M.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9014
EISSN: 1944-8745
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 10 起始页码: 2242
结束页码: 2245
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; climate projections uncertainties
; europe
; land-atmosphere interaction
; sensible heat flux
; summer temperature
Scopus关键词: Climate projection
; europe
; Land-atmosphere interactions
; Sensible heat flux
; Summer temperature
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Greenhouse gases
; Heat flux
; climate change
; climate modeling
; data set
; greenhouse gas
; magnitude
; numerical model
; prediction
; sensible heat flux
; temperature effect
; uncertainty analysis
; Balkan
; Mediterranean Region
; Turkmenistan
英文摘要: The variability of European summer climate is expected to increase in the next century due to increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases, likely resulting in more frequent and more extreme droughts and heatwaves. However, climate models diverge on the magnitude of these processes, due to land-surface coupling processes which are difficult to simulate, and poorly constrained by observations. Here we use gridded observation-based sensible heat fluxes to constrain climate change predictions from an ensemble of 15 regional climate models. Land heat flux observations suggest that temperature projections may be underestimated by up to 1 K regionally in Central to Northern Europe, while slightly overestimated over the Mediterranean and Balkan regions. The use of observation-based heat flux data allows significant reductions in uncertainty as expressed by the model ensemble spread of temperature for the 2071-2100 period. Maximal reduction is obtained over France and the Balkan with values locally reaching 40%. © 2013 American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84879939353&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50404&partnerID=40&md5=63813a76da580ffc3878a25de204df64
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6278
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: LSCE, IPSL, Laboratoire CEA/CNRS/UVSQ, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Recommended Citation:
Stegehuis A.I.,Teuling A.J.,Ciais P.,et al. Future European temperature change uncertainties reduced by using land heat flux observations[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(10).