globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1002/2015JD024326
论文题名:
Estimation of global black carbon direct radiative forcing and its uncertainty constrained by observations
作者: Wang R.; Balkanski Y.; Boucher O.; Ciais P.; Schuster G.L.; Chevallier F.; Samset B.H.; Liu J.; Piao S.; Valari M.; Tao S.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2016
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Black carbon ; Data assimilation ; Emission inventory ; Radiative forcing ; Remote sensing ; Transport model
英文摘要: Black carbon (BC) contributes to global warming by absorbing sunlight. However, the size of this contribution, namely, the direct radiative forcing (RF), ranges from +0.1 to +1.0Wm-2, largely due to differences between bottom-up and observation-based estimates. Current global models systematically underestimate BC radiation absorption relative to observations, which is often attributed to the underestimation of BC emissions. Several studies that adjusted emissions to correct biases of global aerosol models resulted in a revised upward estimate of the BC RF. However, the BC RF was never optimized against observations in a rigorous mathematical manner. Here we simulated the absorption of solar radiation by BC from all sources at the 10km resolution by combining a highly disaggregated emission inventory with a nested aerosol climate model and a downscaling method. As a result, the normalized mean bias in BC radiation absorption was reduced from -56% to -5% in Asia and from -71% to -46% elsewhere. We applied a Bayesian method that makes the best account of all model, representativeness, and observational uncertainties to estimate the BC RF and its uncertainty. Using the new emission inventory and high-resolution model reduces uncertainty in BC RF from -109%/+172% to -77%/+78% over Asia and from -83%/+114% to -64%/+70% over other continental regions. Finally, we derived an observationally constrained BC RF of 0.53 Wm-2 (0.14 to 1.19 as 90% confidence) as our best estimate, less than previous estimates. Our estimate implies that reduction in BC emissions would contribute to slow down global warming, but the contribution could be less than previously thought. ©2016. American Geophysical Union.
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被引频次[WOS]:59   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62966
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Peking University Beijing China; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement CEA CNRS UVSQ Gif-sur-Yvette France; Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Peking University Beijing China; Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, IPSL/CNRS Pierre et Marie Curie Université Paris France; NASA Langley Research Center Hampton, Virginia USA; CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Blindern Oslo Norway; Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique IPSL/CNRS, Ecole Polytechnique Palaiseau France

Recommended Citation:
Wang R.,Balkanski Y.,Boucher O.,et al. Estimation of global black carbon direct radiative forcing and its uncertainty constrained by observations[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2016-01-01
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