DOI: 10.1002/2017MS000947
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85040683364
论文题名: A Caveat Note on Tuning in the Development of Coupled Climate Models
作者: Dommenget D ; , Rezny M
刊名: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
ISSN: 19422466
出版年: 2018
卷: 10, 期: 1 起始页码: 78
结束页码: 97
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Errors
; Optimization
; Climate sensitivity
; Compensating errors
; Coupled climate model
; Coupled general circulation models
; Limited observations
; Model bias
; Model errors
; Parameterization schemes
; Climate models
; carbon dioxide
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; coupling
; energy balance
; ensemble forecasting
; error analysis
; general circulation model
; optimization
; parameterization
; performance assessment
; sensitivity analysis
; simulation
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: State-of-the-art coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) have substantial errors in their simulations of climate. In particular, these errors can lead to large uncertainties in the simulated climate response (both globally and regionally) to a doubling of CO2. Currently, tuning of the parameterization schemes in CGCMs is a significant part of the developed. It is not clear whether such tuning actually improves models. The tuning process is (in general) neither documented, nor reproducible. Alternative methods such as flux correcting are not used nor is it clear if such methods would perform better. In this study, ensembles of perturbed physics experiments are performed with the Globally Resolved Energy Balance (GREB) model to test the impact of tuning. The work illustrates that tuning has, in average, limited skill given the complexity of the system, the limited computing resources, and the limited observations to optimize parameters. While tuning may improve model performance (such as reproducing observed past climate), it will not get closer to the “true” physics nor will it significantly improve future climate change projections. Tuning will introduce artificial compensating error interactions between submodels that will hamper further model development. In turn, flux corrections do perform well in most, but not all aspects. A main advantage of flux correction is that it is much cheaper, simpler, more transparent, and it does not introduce artificial error interactions between submodels. These GREB model experiments should be considered as a pilot study to motivate further CGCM studies that address the issues of model tuning. © 2017. The Authors. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75674
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Dommenget D,, Rezny M. A Caveat Note on Tuning in the Development of Coupled Climate Models[J]. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2018-01-01,10(1)