DOI: 10.1002/2016GB005447
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85018929039
论文题名: One possible uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of low-oxygen water volume in the Eastern Tropical Pacific
作者: Shigemitsu M ; , Yamamoto A ; , Oka A ; , Yamanaka Y
刊名: Global Biogeochemical Cycles
ISSN: 8866236
出版年: 2017
卷: 31, 期: 5 起始页码: 804
结束页码: 820
语种: 英语
英文关键词: biogeochemical model
; CMIP5
; Equatorial Undercurrent
; future projection
; oxygen
Scopus关键词: biogeochemistry
; CMIP
; future prospect
; global warming
; oxygen
; tropical region
; uncertainty analysis
; undercurrent
; volume
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (East)
英文摘要: Using the results from nine Earth system models submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we identify the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) as the region with the greatest uncertainty of future changes in oxygen-deficient (<30 μM) water volumes since different models variously project both positive and negative changes in the oxygen-deficient volume and export flux there. We investigate the factors controlling future changes in oxygen-deficient volume in the ETP with global warming using a single off-line biogeochemical model. Oxygen budget analysis clarifies that the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) is the key mechanism controlling future variations in the oxygen-deficient volume in the ETP in our model. From the outputs of all of the CMIP5 models and our model, we identify a significant negative relationship between changes in the EUC volume transport and the oxygen-deficient water volume from the present to the end of the 21st century, which indicates that the response of the EUC to global warming leads to one possible uncertainty in future projections of oxygen-deficient volume in the ETP. ©2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/77740
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Faculty of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan; Global Chemical and Physical Oceanography Group, Research and Development Center for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan; Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Shigemitsu M,, Yamamoto A,, Oka A,et al. One possible uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of low-oxygen water volume in the Eastern Tropical Pacific[J]. Global Biogeochemical Cycles,2017-01-01,31(5)