Population statistics
; Waterworks
; Aggregate production
; Endogenous process
; Population change
; Production and consumption
; Technological advancement
; Technological change
; Technological innovation
; Technology change
; Societies and institutions
; civilization
; numerical model
; population decline
; population size
; population structure
; technological change
英文摘要:
Ancient civilizations may have dispersed or collapsed under extreme dry conditions. There are indications that the same may hold for modern societies. However, hydroclimatic change cannot be the sole predictor of the fate of contemporary societies in water-scarce regions. This paper focuses on technological change as a factor that may ameliorate the effects of increasing water scarcity and as such counter the effects of hydroclimatic changes. We study the role of technological change on the dynamics of coupled human-water systems, and model technological change as an endogenous process that depends on many factors intrinsic to coupled human-water dynamics. We do not treat technology as an exogenous random sequence of events, but assume that it results from societal actions.
Department of Water Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Department of Geography, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL, United States
Recommended Citation:
Pande S,, Ertsen M,, Sivapalan M. Endogenous technological and population change under increasing water scarcity[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2014-01-01,18(8)