DOI: 10.5194/hess-18-3069-2014
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84920921385
论文题名: Quantitative contribution of climate change and human activities to runoff changes in the Wei River basin, China
作者: Zhan C ; S ; , Jiang S ; S ; , Sun F ; B ; , Jia Y ; W ; , Niu C ; W ; , Yue W ; F
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2014
卷: 18, 期: 8 起始页码: 3069
结束页码: 3077
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Elasticity
; Watersheds
; Climatic impact
; Human activities
; Human impact
; Quantitative assessments
; Runoff changes
; Simulation reliability
; Surface runoffs
; Yellow river
; Runoff
; climate change
; human activity
; river basin
; runoff
; simulation
; tributary
; China
; Wei Basin
; Yellow River
英文摘要: Surface runoff from the Wei River basin, the largest tributary of the Yellow River in China, has dramatically decreased over last 51 years from 1958 to 2008. Climate change and human activities have been identified as the two main reasons for the decrease in runoff. The study period is split into two sub-periods (1958-1989 and 1990-2008) using the Mann-Kendall jump test. This study develops an improved climate elasticity method based on the original climate elasticity method, and conducts a quantitative assessment of the impact of climate change and human activities on the runoff decrease in the Wei River basin. The results from the original climate elasticity method show that climatic impacts contribute 37-40% to the decrease in runoff, while human impacts contribute 60-63%. In contrast, the results from the improved climate elasticity method yield a climatic contribution to runoff decrease of 22-29% and a human contribution of 71-78%. A discussion of the simulation reliability and uncertainty concludes that the improved climate elasticity method has a better mechanism and can provide more reasonable results. © Author(s) 2014. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78166
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China; Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, 100875, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Zhan C,S,, Jiang S,et al. Quantitative contribution of climate change and human activities to runoff changes in the Wei River basin, China[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2014-01-01,18(8)