DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-1971-2018
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85044731471
论文题名: Responses of runoff to historical and future climate variability over China
作者: Wu C ; , Hu B ; X ; , Huang G ; , Wang P ; , Xu K
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2018
卷: 22, 期: 3 起始页码: 1971
结束页码: 1991
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Arid regions
; Budget control
; Catchments
; Elasticity
; Global warming
; Runoff
; Catchment properties
; Climate projection
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Emission scenario
; Global climate model
; Non-linear relationships
; Potential evaporation
; Spatial variations
; Climate models
英文摘要: China has suffered some of the effects of global warming, and one of the potential implications of climate warming is the alteration of the temporal-spatial patterns of water resources. Based on the long-term (1960-2008) water budget data and climate projections from 28 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), this study investigated the responses of runoff (R) to historical and future climate variability in China at both grid and catchment scales using the Budyko-based elasticity method. Results show that there is a large spatial variation in precipitation (P) elasticity (from 1.1 to 3.2) and potential evaporation (PET) elasticity (from-2.2 to-0.1) across China. The P elasticity is larger in north-eastern and western China than in southern China, while the opposite occurs for PET elasticity. The catchment properties' elasticity of R appears to have a strong non-linear relationship with the mean annual aridity index and tends to be more significant in more arid regions. For the period 1960-2008, the climate contribution to R ranges from-2.4 to 3.6%-1 across China, with the negative contribution in north-eastern China and the positive contribution in western China and some parts of the south-west. The results of climate projections indicate that although there is large uncertainty involved in the 28 GCMs, most project a consistent change in P (or PET) in China at the annual scale. For the period 2071-2100, the mean annual P is projected to increase in most parts of China, especially the western regions, while the mean annual PET is projected to increase in all of China, particularly the southern regions. Furthermore, greater increases are projected for higher emission scenarios. Overall, due to climate change, the arid regions and humid regions of China are projected to become wetter and drier in the period 2071-2100, respectively (relative to the baseline 1971-2000). © Author(s) 2018. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/79348
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute of Groundwater and Earth Sciences, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China; Department of Earth Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, United States; School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, China; State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Building Science, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, China
Recommended Citation:
Wu C,, Hu B,X,et al. Responses of runoff to historical and future climate variability over China[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(3)