DOI: 10.1002/2015GL063877
论文题名: What aspects of future rainfall changes matter for crop yields in West Africa?
作者: Guan K. ; Sultan B. ; Biasutti M. ; Baron C. ; Lobell D.B.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8543
EISSN: 1944-8274
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 19 起始页码: 8001
结束页码: 8010
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; crop
; rainfall
; sorghum
; West Africa
Scopus关键词: Agriculture
; Climate change
; Crops
; Intense rainfalls
; Rain fed agriculture
; Rainfall frequency
; Rainfall intensity
; Seasonal rainfall
; sorghum
; Synthetic rainfalls
; West Africa
; Rain
; agricultural modeling
; arid region
; climate change
; crop yield
; future prospect
; model validation
; precipitation assessment
; rainfed agriculture
; sorghum
; yield response
; West Africa
英文摘要: How rainfall arrives, in terms of its frequency, intensity, the timing and duration of rainy season, may have a large influence on rainfed agriculture. However, a thorough assessment of these effects is largely missing. This study combines a new synthetic rainfall model and two independently validated crop models (APSIM and SARRA-H) to assess sorghum yield response to possible shifts in seasonal rainfall characteristics in West Africa. We find that shifts in total rainfall amount primarily drive the rainfall-related crop yield change, with less relevance to intraseasonal rainfall features. However, dry regions (total annual rainfall below 500 mm/yr) have a high sensitivity to rainfall frequency and intensity, and more intense rainfall events have greater benefits for crop yield than more frequent rainfall. Delayed monsoon onset may negatively impact yields. Our study implies that future changes in seasonal rainfall characteristics should be considered in designing specific crop adaptations in West Africa. Key Points Shifts in total rainfall amount primarily drive rainfall-related crop yield change Increased rainfall intensity improves dryland crop yields more than frequency A delayed rainy season onset, in general, leads to yield loss in West Africa © 2015. The Authors. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84946944496&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL063877&partnerID=40&md5=8f313085552c55d424aa7229e38f2ab8
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8159
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Earth System Science, Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Guan K.,Sultan B.,Biasutti M.,et al. What aspects of future rainfall changes matter for crop yields in West Africa?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(19).