DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1615-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957538623
论文题名: Simulated differences in 21st century aridity due to different scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols
作者: Lin L. ; Gettelman A. ; Fu Q. ; Xu Y.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
卷: 146, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 407
结束页码: 422
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Aerosols
; Agriculture
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Drying
; Earth (planet)
; Emission control
; Agricultural productions
; Atmospheric oxidants
; Earth system model
; Ensemble simulation
; Global climate model
; Global-mean temperature
; Potential evapotranspiration
; Surface temperature changes
; Greenhouse gases
英文摘要: Aridity, defined as the ratio of precipitation (P) to potential evapotranspiration (PET) over land, is critical to natural ecosystems and agricultural production. Global climate models project global decreases of P/PET (drying) in the 21st century. We examine the uncertainty of aridity projections due to scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols with three sets of ensemble simulations from a single climate model, the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). Ensembles consist of two Radiative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and a scenario with RCP-like GHGs but with aerosol precursor emissions and atmospheric oxidants fixed at the year 2005 level. Under a high GHGs emission scenario (RCP8.5), global land P/PET decreases (drying) by 6.4 ± 0.8 % in 2060–2080 relative to 1985–2005. A GHG mitigation scenario (RCP4.5) would reduce the drying (P/PET decrease) to 3.7 ± 0.6 %. Although future aerosol emissions reduction would increase P, we find that it has little impact on global aridity due to offsetting effects on PET. Regionally, deceasing aerosols can have significant effects and aerosol-induced P/PET changes are due to different factors across different regions. When normalized by global mean temperature response, GHGs decrease global land P/PET by 2.7 ± 0.6 %/°C and surface temperature changes dominate GHG-induced P/PET change. © 2016, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83812
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, United States
Recommended Citation:
Lin L.,Gettelman A.,Fu Q.,et al. Simulated differences in 21st century aridity due to different scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,146(2018-03-04)