DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1709-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85031391830
论文题名: Vulnerability of and risk to water resources in arid and semi-arid regions of West China under a scenario of climate change
作者: Xia J. ; Ning L. ; Wang Q. ; Chen J. ; Wan L. ; Hong S.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 144, 期: 3 起始页码: 549
结束页码: 563
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Arid regions
; Climate change
; Hazards
; Landforms
; Population statistics
; Risk assessment
; Risk perception
; Rivers
; Surface water resources
; Arid and semi-arid regions
; Climate change scenarios
; Economic characteristics
; Northern tianshan mountains
; Potential evapotranspiration
; Spatial variations
; Surface humidity
; Water resources systems
; Water resources
; arid region
; climate change
; drought
; GIS
; humidity
; potential evapotranspiration
; precipitation (climatology)
; risk assessment
; semiarid region
; spatial variation
; vulnerability
; water resource
; China
英文摘要: This paper quantifies the vulnerability of and risk to water resources (VRWR) under a scenario of climate change in the arid and semi-arid region of West China. A new approach integrating hazard, sensitivity, resilience, exposure and risk is developed to assess the VRWR from climate change. Drought is regarded as the key hazard, with its frequency and severity defined using a surface humidity index. Exposure is quantitatively linked with indicators of population and social and economic characteristics using statistical and Geographical Information System (GIS) methodologies. Risk is defined as the product of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, while vulnerability is treated as a function of sensitivity and adaptation. Vulnerability and risk in the water resources system in the coming 20 years are assessed for the RCP 4.5 scenario. The results reveal that both hazard and exposure of water resources display strong spatial variation in the study area. High hazard and exposure are found in the northern Tianshan Mountain as well as the eastern part of Hexi Corridor. Water resources are particularly sensitive to variation in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in the upstream areas of Hexi Corridor, rivers in Central Asia, headwater streams of Tarim River and most of Chang Tang Plateau. Our assessment shows that there is high vulnerability of and risk to water resources in the study area, especially in the areas of Hexi Corridor, northern Tianshan Mountain and Tarim River. Under the RCP 4.5 climate change scenario, the vulnerability and risk decline over the entire area but remain at a serious level in inland rivers in Hexi Corridor, northern Tianshan Mountain and headwater streams of Tarim River. Thus, these areas are the highest priority for strengthening policy measures to adapt to climate change and reduce exposure and vulnerability and their risk to water resources. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83892
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China; Key Laboratory of Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Processes, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Graduate School of Agriculture, Shizuoka University, Shizuoka, Japan; School of Resource, Environment and Earth Science, Yunnan University, Kunming, China; School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Xia J.,Ning L.,Wang Q.,et al. Vulnerability of and risk to water resources in arid and semi-arid regions of West China under a scenario of climate change[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,144(3)