DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1716-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84973621430
论文题名: The relative importance of climate change and population growth for exposure to future extreme droughts
作者: Smirnov O. ; Zhang M. ; Xiao T. ; Orbell J. ; Lobben A. ; Gordon J.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 138, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 41
结束页码: 53
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Drought
; Population statistics
; Water supply
; Anthropogenic climate changes
; Dominant factor
; Emissions scenarios
; Future climate
; Population growth
; Regional levels
; Security changes
; Water scarcity
; Climate change
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; climate modeling
; drought
; index method
; nature-society relations
; population growth
; prediction
; water use
英文摘要: The human consequences of drought are normally addressed in terms of “water scarcity” originating from human water use. In these terms, a common prediction to the next few decades is that population growth, not climate change, will be the dominant factor determining numbers living under such scarcity. Here we address the relative importance of increasing human caused extreme drought and increasing population for numbers of humans likely to be directly exposed in the future to such drought. Using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in conjunction with an ensemble of 16 CMIP5 climate models we find that, by 2081-2100 under the high emissions scenario RCP 8.5, average worldwide monthly population exposed to extreme drought (SPEI < -2) will increase by 386.8 million to 472.3 million (+426.6% from the current 89.7 million). Anthropogenic climate change is responsible for approximately 230.0 million (59.5%) of that increase with population growth responsible for only 35.5 million (9.2%); the climate change-population growth interaction explains the remaining 121.1 million (31.4%). At the national level, 129 countries will experience increase in drought exposure mainly due to climate change alone; 23 countries primarily due to population growth; and 38 countries primarily due to the interaction between climate change and population growth. Given inherently large uncertainties, projections of future climate impacts should be accepted with caution especially those directed to the regional level, to future population trends, and, of course, where technological, social and security changes are possible. © 2016, The Author(s).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84234
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Political Science, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, United States; School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, United States; Institute of Cognitive and Decision Sciences, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, United States; Department of Geography, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, United States
Recommended Citation:
Smirnov O.,Zhang M.,Xiao T.,et al. The relative importance of climate change and population growth for exposure to future extreme droughts[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,138(2018-01-02)