DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1281-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84959193080
论文题名: The impacts of climate change across the globe: A multi-sectoral assessment
作者: Arnell N.W. ; Brown S. ; Gosling S.N. ; Gottschalk P. ; Hinkel J. ; Huntingford C. ; Lloyd-Hughes B. ; Lowe J.A. ; Nicholls R.J. ; Osborn T.J. ; Osborne T.M. ; Rose G.A. ; Smith P. ; Wheeler T.R. ; Zelazowski P.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2016
卷: 134, 期: 3 起始页码: 457
结束页码: 474
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Floods
; Sea level
; Uncertainty analysis
; Water resources
; Built environment
; Crop productivity
; Emissions scenarios
; Global climate model
; Multiple dimensions
; Natural environments
; Projected patterns
; Residential energy demand
; Climate change
; assessment method
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; coastal zone
; crop production
; environmental planning
; flooding
; global perspective
; residential energy
; river basin
; sea level
; socioeconomic status
; water resource
; water stress
; Middle East
; North Africa
英文摘要: The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on the distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts. This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonised set of impacts models forced by the same climate and socio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment and built environment sectors. Impacts are assessed under four SRES socio-economic and emissions scenarios, and the effects of uncertainty in the projected pattern of climate change are incorporated by constructing climate scenarios from 21 global climate models. There is considerable uncertainty in projected regional impacts across the climate model scenarios, and coherent assessments of impacts across sectors and regions therefore must be based on each model pattern separately; using ensemble means, for example, reduces variability between sectors and indicators. An example narrative assessment is presented in the paper. Under this narrative approximately 1 billion people would be exposed to increased water resources stress, around 450 million people exposed to increased river flooding, and 1.3 million extra people would be flooded in coastal floods each year. Crop productivity would fall in most regions, and residential energy demands would be reduced in most regions because reduced heating demands would offset higher cooling demands. Most of the global impacts on water stress and flooding would be in Asia, but the proportional impacts in the Middle East North Africa region would be larger. By 2050 there are emerging differences in impact between different emissions and socio-economic scenarios even though the changes in temperature and sea level are similar, and these differences are greater in 2080. However, for all the indicators, the range in projected impacts between different climate models is considerably greater than the range between emissions and socio-economic scenarios. © 2014, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84393
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Walker Institute, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; University of Southampton and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Southampton, United Kingdom; University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom; PIK Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany; Global Climate Forum, Berlin, Germany; Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Arnell N.W.,Brown S.,Gosling S.N.,et al. The impacts of climate change across the globe: A multi-sectoral assessment[J]. Climatic Change,2016-01-01,134(3)