DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1372-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84929955639
论文题名: New climate and socio-economic scenarios for assessing global human health challenges due to heat risk
作者: Dong W. ; Liu Z. ; Liao H. ; Tang Q. ; Li X.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 130, 期: 4 起始页码: 505
结束页码: 518
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Hazards
; Health
; Risk assessment
; Risk perception
; Developing regions
; Higher frequencies
; Policy makers
; Regional scale
; Socio-economic vulnerability
; Socio-economics
; Southeast Asia
; Warming climate
; Health risks
; climate modeling
; global warming
; hazard assessment
; health risk
; heat flux
; mortality
; policy making
; public health
; socioeconomic impact
; vulnerability
英文摘要: Motivated by growing heat-related morbidity and mortality in a warming climate, this paper assesses global heat health risk in order to understand the challenges to sustainability in the 21st century, using four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) of the HadGEM2-ES climate model and five Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). Factors influencing global heat health risk were reviewed and risks were estimated based on heat hazard and socio-economic vulnerability. Hazard, vulnerability, risk and in particular, populations at different risk levels, were analyzed quantitatively at both global and regional scales. The results show that under an RCP8.5-SSP3 scenario, the world will be subject to the highest heat health risk, with rapidly increasing hazard levels and vulnerability over the century. Less developed or developing regions, such as Africa and Southeast Asia, are at the highest risk. The heat risk under an RCP2.6-SSP1 scenario will first increase and then fall, resulting in the lowest heat-health-risk pattern. We found that heat health risk will increase during the century under all RCP-SSP scenarios, with a higher frequency, higher intensity, longer duration and expanding spatial reach. Significant differences were observed across regions. The results make clear that the increasing risk poses significant challenges to sustainable human health. To meet these challenges, more attention and effective actions are urgently needed from both policy makers and individuals. © 2015, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84606
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Beijing Key Laboratory for Remote Sensing of Environment and Digital Cities & School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; The State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Dong W.,Liu Z.,Liao H.,et al. New climate and socio-economic scenarios for assessing global human health challenges due to heat risk[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,130(4)