DOI: 10.1002/2015GL065854
论文题名: Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario?
作者: Pendergrass A.G. ; Lehner F. ; Sanderson B.M. ; Xu Y.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9101
EISSN: 1944-8832
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 20 起始页码: 8767
结束页码: 8774
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; extreme precipitation
; global climate models
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Gas emissions
; Global warming
; Greenhouse gases
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Daily precipitations
; Emissions scenarios
; Extreme precipitation
; Global climate model
; Global mean surface temperature
; Mean precipitation
; Multi-model ensemble
; Climate models
; aerosol
; climate modeling
; emission inventory
; ensemble forecasting
; extratropical environment
; extreme event
; global climate
; global warming
; greenhouse gas
; precipitation intensity
; surface temperature
英文摘要: The rate of increase of global-mean precipitation per degree global-mean surface temperature increase differs for greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings and across emissions scenarios with differing composition of change in forcing. We investigate whether or not the rate of change of extreme precipitation also varies across the four emissions scenarios that force the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 5 multimodel ensemble. In most models, the rate of increase of maximum annual daily precipitation per degree global warming in the multimodel ensemble is statistically indistinguishable across the four scenarios, whether this extreme precipitation is calculated globally, over all land, or over extratropical land. These results indicate that in contrast to mean precipitation, extreme precipitation depends on the total amount of warming and does not depend on emissions scenario in most models. Key Point In most models extreme precipitation does not depend on emissions scenario © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84946600986&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL065854&partnerID=40&md5=446cb79e501a1cf8973df71c097db9dc
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8717
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Pendergrass A.G.,Lehner F.,Sanderson B.M.,et al. Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(20).