globalchange  > 科学计划与规划
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL064745
Impact of having realistic tropical cyclone frequency on ocean heat content and transport forecasts in a high-resolution coupled model
Author: Zhang S.; Zhao M.; Lin S.-J.; Yang X.; Anderson W.; Zhang W.; Rosati A.; Underwood S.; Zeng F.
Source Publication: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9320
EISSN: 1944-9051
Publishing Year: 2015
Volume: 42, Issue:14
pages begin: 5966
pages end: 5973
Language: 英语
Keyword: climate prediction ; tropical cyclone statistics
Scopus Keyword: Atmospheric movements ; Atmospheric temperature ; Balloons ; Climatology ; Enthalpy ; Forecasting ; Hurricanes ; Mixing ; Oceanography ; Storms ; Surface waters ; Tropics ; Climate prediction ; Continuous interactions ; Initialization procedures ; Meridional heat transports ; Northern Hemispheres ; Sea surface temperature (SST) ; Southern Hemisphere ; Tropical cyclone ; Climate models ; climate prediction ; coupling ; Ekman layer ; forecasting method ; mixing ; sea surface temperature ; Southern Hemisphere ; tropical cyclone ; Southern Ocean
English Abstract: This study examines two sets of high-resolution coupled model forecasts starting from no-tropical cyclone (TC) and correct-TC-statistics initial conditions to understand the role of TC events on climate prediction. While the model with no-TC initial conditions can quickly spin-up TCs within a week, the initial conditions with a corrected TC distribution can produce more accurate forecast of sea surface temperature up to 1.5months and maintain larger ocean heat content up to 6months due to enhanced mixing from continuous interactions between initialized and forecasted TCs and the evolving ocean states. The TC-enhanced tropical ocean mixing strengthens the meridional heat transport in the Southern Hemisphere driven primarily by Southern Ocean surface Ekman fluxes but weakens the Northern Hemisphere poleward transport in this model. This study suggests a future plausible initialization procedure for seamless weather-climate prediction when individual convection-permitting cyclone initialization is incorporated into this TC-statistics-permitting framework. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
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Document Type: 期刊论文
Appears in Collections:科学计划与规划

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Affiliation: GFDL/NOAA, Princeton, NJ, United States

Recommended Citation:
Zhang S.,Zhao M.,Lin S.-J.,et al. Impact of having realistic tropical cyclone frequency on ocean heat content and transport forecasts in a high-resolution coupled model[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(14).
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