DOI: | 10.1002/2015GL063557
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论文题名: | Recent and future changes in the Asian monsoon-ENSO relationship: Natural or forced? |
作者: | Li X.; Ting M.
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刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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ISSN: | 0094-9488
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EISSN: | 1944-9219
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出版年: | 2015
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卷: | 42, 期:9 | 起始页码: | 3502
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结束页码: | 3512
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语种: | 英语
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英文关键词: | Asian monsoon
; Climate variability and change
; ENSO
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Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Oceanography
; Orthogonal functions
; Signal to noise ratio
; Surface waters
; Asian monsoon
; Climate variability and change
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Empirical orthogonal function analysis
; ENSO
; Natural variability
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Southern oscillation
; Climatology
; anthropogenic effect
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; rainfall
; sea surface temperature
; simulation
; Asia
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英文摘要: | The Asian monsoon-ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) relationship in the 20th and 21st centuries is examined using observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model simulations. CMIP5 models can simulate the ENSO-monsoon spatial structure reasonably well when using the multimodel mean. Running correlations show prominent decadal variability of the ENSO-monsoon relationship in observations. The modeled ENSO-monsoon relation shows large intermodel spread, indicating large variations across the model ensemble. The anthropogenically forced component of ENSO-monsoon relationship is separated from the naturally varying component based on a signal-to-noise maximizing empirical orthogonal function analysis using global sea surface temperature (SST). Results show that natural variability plays a dominant role in the varied ENSO-monsoon relationship during the 20th century. In the 21st century, the forced component is dominated by enhanced monsoon rainfall associated with SST warming, which may contribute to a slightly weakened ENSO-monsoon relation in the future. Key Points Natural variability dominates the recent ENSO-monsoon relationship change Forced rainfall change may weaken the ENSO-monsoon relation in the future CMIP5 models show large intermodel spread ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84930476422&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL063557&partnerID=40&md5=3c637261c3b551ed303122464b45167d
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Citation statistics: |
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资源类型: | 期刊论文
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标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9103
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Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
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Recommended Citation: |
Li X.,Ting M.. Recent and future changes in the Asian monsoon-ENSO relationship: Natural or forced?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(9).
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