DOI: 10.1002/2015GL065311
论文题名: Revisiting the evidence of increasing springtime ozone mixing ratios in the free troposphere over western North America
作者: Lin M. ; Horowitz L.W. ; Cooper O.R. ; Tarasick D. ; Conley S. ; Iraci L.T. ; Johnson B. ; Leblanc T. ; Petropavlovskikh I. ; Yates E.L.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9564
EISSN: 1944-9295
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 20 起始页码: 8719
结束页码: 8728
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate variability
; ozone attribution
; rising Asian emissions
; tropospheric ozone
; U.S. air quality
Scopus关键词: Air quality
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Troposphere
; Chemistry-climate models
; Climate variability
; Geophysical fluid dynamics laboratories
; Incomplete observation
; Interannual variability
; Ozone mixing ratio
; Temporal and spatial
; Tropospheric ozone
; Ozone
; air quality
; climate change
; emission
; hindcasting
; methane
; mixing ratio
; ozone
; spatiotemporal analysis
; spring (season)
; time series
; troposphere
; Asia
; North America
英文摘要: We present a 20 year time series of in situ free tropospheric ozone observations above western North America during springtime and interpret results using hindcast simulations (1980-2014) conducted with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory global chemistry-climate model (GFDL AM3). Revisiting the analysis of Cooper et al. (), we show that sampling biases can substantially influence calculated trends. AM3 cosampled in space and time with observations reproduces the observed ozone trend (0.65 ± 0.32 ppbv yr-1) over 1995-2008 (in simulations either with or without time-varying emissions), whereas AM3 "true median" with continuous temporal and spatial sampling indicates an insignificant trend (0.25 ± 0.32 ppbv yr-1). Extending this analysis to 1995-2014, we find a weaker ozone trend of 0.31 ± 0.21 ppbv yr-1 from observations and 0.36 ± 0.18 ppbv yr-1 from AM3 "true median." Rising Asian emissions and global methane contribute to this increase. While interannual variability complicates the attribution of ozone trends, multidecadal hindcasts can aid in the estimation of robust confidence limits for trends based on sparse observational records. Key Points Multidecadal hindcast simulations to interpret O3 trends based on incomplete observations Large variability in meteorology and sparse in situ sampling complicates O3 trend estimates While rising Asian emissions raise U.S. O3 background, the model "true median" indicates weaker or insignificant trends © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84946546437&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL065311&partnerID=40&md5=76b26941b49920d5f0f520cc585b4c62
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9179
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Lin M.,Horowitz L.W.,Cooper O.R.,et al. Revisiting the evidence of increasing springtime ozone mixing ratios in the free troposphere over western North America[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(20).