DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069965
论文题名: Perspectives on the causes of exceptionally low 2015 snowpack in the western United States
作者: Mote P.W. ; Rupp D.E. ; Li S. ; Sharp D.J. ; Otto F. ; Uhe P.F. ; Xiao M. ; Lettenmaier D.P. ; Cullen H. ; Allen M.R.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8495
EISSN: 1944-8226
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 20 起始页码: 10980
结束页码: 10988
语种: 英语
英文关键词: attribution
; drought
; regional climate model
; snow drought
; superensemble
; weather@home
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Atmospheric temperature
; Drought
; Drought
; Oceanography
; Oceanography
; Snow
; Snow
; Surface waters
; Surface waters
; Anthropogenic effects
; Anthropogenic effects
; attribution
; attribution
; Hydrologic modeling
; Hydrologic modeling
; Regional climate model simulation
; Regional climate model simulation
; Regional climate modeling
; Regional climate modeling
; Sea surface temperature anomalies
; Sea surface temperature anomalies
; Super ensembles
; Super ensembles
; Western United States
; Western United States
; Climate models
; Climate models
英文摘要: Augmenting previous papers about the exceptional 2011–2015 California drought, we offer new perspectives on the “snow drought” that extended into Oregon in 2014 and Washington in 2015. Over 80% of measurement sites west of 115°W experienced record low snowpack in 2015, and we estimate a return period of 400–1000 years for California's snowpack under the questionable assumption of stationarity. Hydrologic modeling supports the conclusion that 2015 was the most severe on record by a wide margin. Using a crowd-sourced superensemble of regional climate model simulations, we show that both human influence and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies contributed strongly to the risk of snow drought in Oregon and Washington: the contribution of SST anomalies was about twice that of human influence. By contrast, SSTs and humans appear to have played a smaller role in creating California's snow drought. In all three states, the anthropogenic effect on temperature exacerbated the snow drought. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84995376254&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL069965&partnerID=40&md5=9c751b3e9c3078b97bf0231fb86f2730
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9458
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States
Recommended Citation:
Mote P.W.,Rupp D.E.,Li S.,et al. Perspectives on the causes of exceptionally low 2015 snowpack in the western United States[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(20).