DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069802
论文题名: Reconciling observed and modeled temperature and precipitation trends over Europe by adjusting for circulation variability
作者: Saffioti C. ; Fischer E.M. ; Scherrer S.C. ; Knutti R.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8811
EISSN: 1944-8542
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 15 起始页码: 8189
结束页码: 8198
语种: 英语
英文关键词: atmospheric circulation
; dynamical adjustment
; Europe
; internal climate variability
; precipitation trends
; temperature trends
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climatology
; Meteorology
; Sea level
; Atmospheric circulation
; Dynamical adjustment
; Europe
; Internal climate variability
; Precipitation trends
; Temperature trends
; Atmospheric temperature
; atmospheric circulation
; climate change
; climate modeling
; cooling
; precipitation (climatology)
; precipitation assessment
; sea level pressure
; temperature gradient
; trend analysis
; Europe
; Norway
; Switzerland
英文摘要: Europe experienced a pronounced winter cooling of about −0.37°C/decade in the period 1989–2012, in contrast to the strong warming simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multimodel average during the same period. Even more pronounced discrepancies between observed and simulated short-term trends are found at the local scale, e.g., a strong winter cooling over Switzerland and a pronounced reduction in precipitation along the coast of Norway. We show that monthly sea level pressure variability accounts for much of the short-term variations of temperature over most of the domain and of precipitation in certain regions. Removing the effect of atmospheric circulation through a regression approach reconciles the observed temperature trends over Europe and Switzerland and the precipitation trend along the coast of Norway with the corresponding multimodel mean trends. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84982943376&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL069802&partnerID=40&md5=8397cd35212e306336b97e167a3f084f
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/9774
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Saffioti C.,Fischer E.M.,Scherrer S.C.,et al. Reconciling observed and modeled temperature and precipitation trends over Europe by adjusting for circulation variability[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(15).