| 项目编号: | NE/P014941/1
|
| 项目名称: | Climate, Land-Use, and Ecosystem Services at 1.5C |
| 作者: | Peter Cox
|
| 承担单位: | University of Exeter
|
| 批准年: | 2015
|
| 开始日期: | 2016-31-10
|
| 结束日期: | 2018-31-03
|
| 资助金额: | GBP107282
|
| 资助来源: | UK-NERC
|
| 项目类别: | Research Grant
|
| 国家: | UK
|
| 语种: | 英语
|
| 特色学科分类: | Climate & Climate Change 
; (50%)
; Terrest. & freshwater environ. 
; (50%)
|
| 英文摘要: | In Paris last December, the world's governments agreed to pursue "efforts to limit the [global] temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change." More than half of the UNFCCC countries believe that a 2 degC warmer world would have impacts they couldn't cope with. Therefore, limiting climate change is extremely important for the livelihood of millions of people who live in climate-vulnerable regions around the world.
Scenarios considered in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5) that were designed to have a likely chance of staying below 2degC were only achievable with large-scale land-based mitigation. Land-based mitigation can include protection and enhancement of natural uptake and storage of carbon in vegetation and soils, as well as technologies to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. An example of the latter is bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. During combustion in power plants, CO2 can be extracted, transported, and stored in geologic repositories - this is the process of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). Combining bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) could result in negative emissions of CO2. BECCS is attractive since it results in a net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere while also providing a renewable source of energy.
However, large-scale land-based mitigation relies on increases in land area used for mitigation and increased productivity on existing land areas, adding pressure on food and timber production, availability of freshwater, fertiliser use and biodiversity. Our project will evaluate impacts of land-use changes for mitigation contributing to a 1.5 degC climate stabilization target. A key question is: Do the negative impacts of land use change (on food and water) outweigh the positive effects of avoiding some climate change? Land will certainly play a large role in reducing the amount of climate change we see this century - it comprises up to 25% of the total emission reductions promised by individual countries in the lead-up to the Paris agreements. However, these commitments alone are not enough to reduce climate change below 2 degC, so research into methods for increasing the reductions is urgently needed.
Our project brings together complementary expertise in climate, land-surface, and land-use modelling at the University of Exeter and the NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, with first-hand knowledge of national and international policy on climate change and land-use change at the University of Bristol and the Government Office for Science. We will use various scenarios of future land use and climate change to quantify the potential for CO2 removal and inform emission budgets - how much CO2 we can emit while having a likely chance of remaining below 1.5 degC. It is essential that we limit climate change while also providing food and water for the growing global population. Therefore we will also generate scenarios and check final outputs for their ability to produce sufficient food to meet the expected increasing demand for high value foods higher in energy and protein. |
| 资源类型: | 项目
|
| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/100355
|
| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
|
|
There are no files associated with this item.
|
|
作者单位: | University of Exeter
|
| Recommended Citation: | |
Peter Cox. Climate, Land-Use, and Ecosystem Services at 1.5C. 2015-01-01.
|
|
|