| 项目编号: | BB/N020545/1
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| 项目名称: | Resilience of the UK food system to Global Shocks (RUGS) |
| 作者: | Dominic Moran
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| 承担单位: | SRUC
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| 批准年: | 2015
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| 开始日期: | 2016-01-10
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| 结束日期: | 2020-30-09
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| 资助金额: | GBP52463
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| 资助来源: | UK-BBSRC
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| 项目类别: | Research Grant
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| 国家: | UK
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 特色学科分类: | Agri-environmental science
; Climate & Climate Change
; Economics
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| 英文摘要: | The ability of the global food systems to rebound from shocks and in particular the resilience of the UK food system is the focus of this project. Growing populations, changing diets (in response to income changes) and bioenergy are increasing pressures on the agricultural system globally to produce the commodities demanded. The location and intensity of food production is also changing, due to the globalisation of food supply and increasing international trade in agricultural commodities. Environmental considerations are also having an influence, both through climate change impacting crops and driving adaptation strategies, and through sustainability thresholds (e.g. water or deforestation). A progressively interconnected global food system, coupled with increasing demands and constraints, increases risks (i.e. reduces resilience) to global shocks. Events that shock supply or demand in one or more regions can affect the global market, and impact producers and consumers around the world. A notable example is the 2007/08 food price spike, as well as the continued price volatility.
To understand UK food resilience the global system needs to be considered, due to this interconnectedness. Even for commodities where domestic consumption is largely produced within the UK, global markets have a significant role in determining the UK market prices, e.g. recent milk price movements. Using stakeholder consultation the project will define a set of shock scenarios. These will then be simulated in a novel model of the global food system to assess the impact on food price for the average UK consumer, and the results then analysed to identify key messages for policy maker, the food supply chain, and the public.
A diverse set of shocks scenarios with the potential to impact UK food security will be developed. These will range from relatively business-as-usual scenarios, to more extreme events. A range of future climate and socio-economic scenarios (i.e. populations and incomes) will be used, both as scenarios in their own right and as context for some of the other shocks. For example, the shocks will include; variations in trade barriers, adjustments in dietary patterns, bioenergy demand, alternative rates of technological development, and geopolitical insecurities (e.g. war). They will be described qualitatively and quantitatively, including an assessment of uncertainty and likelihood.
The effect of the shocks will be evaluated by extending and using existing coupled models, development under a EU FP7 project (LUC4C). The model departs from the usual global economic optimisation approaches previously applied to agricultural systems, and offers a more detailed spatial representation of crop and pasture yields for a range of intensities, i.e. fertiliser and irrigation rates. The model also relaxes some of the more restrictive market assumptions. The model does not require market equilibrium and is able to represent non-economic governmental response behaviour, e.g. the imposition of trade barrier due to supply shortages. A further complexity is the two-way interaction between climate and the global food system. Climate change effects crop growing condition, the probabilities of extreme weather events, and will influences producer adaptation to changing conditions. But climate is also affected by land use, a substantial proportion of total anthropocentric carbon dioxide emissions are associated with land use change. To represent the feedbacks between land use and climate the project's model framework includes a coupled climate system model, vegetative model, and land use model.
Policymaker, industry and supply chain stakeholder interventions to potentially increase the resilience of the UK food system will be examined, based on the simulation results. The project will also consider the effect of market power, and the policy and regulatory environment in mitigating or increasing the UK food system's resilience. |
| 资源类型: | 项目
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/100626
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Dominic Moran. Resilience of the UK food system to Global Shocks (RUGS). 2015-01-01.
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