DOI: 10.1002/2016GL068108
论文题名: The combined influences of autumnal snow and sea ice on Northern Hemisphere winters
作者: Furtado J.C. ; Cohen J.L. ; Tziperman E.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9117
EISSN: 1944-8848
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 7 起始页码: 3478
结束页码: 3485
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Annular Mode
; Arctic-mid-latitude teleconnections
; Sub-seasonal forecasting
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Forecasting
; Sea ice
; Snow
; Annular Mode
; Northern annular mode
; Northern hemisphere
; Northern Hemispheres
; Seasonal forecasting
; Surface temperatures
; Teleconnections
; Tropospheric circulation
; Ice
英文摘要: Past studies have demonstrated a significant relationship between the phase and amplitude of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and both Arctic sea ice and high-latitude snow cover during boreal autumn. However, those studies have considered these forcings separately. Here we consider the collective effect of Arctic sea ice and snow cover variability for producing skillful subseasonal forecasts for Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter conditions. We find that these two cryospheric elements interact with the extratropical atmosphere differently through the cold season. Sea ice extent minima during November play a role in stratospheric and tropospheric circulation anomalies during November/December with a secondary maximum in late January/February. October snow cover anomalies, however, have impacts on the NAM primarily during middle to late winter. These timing differences are likely tied to differences in anomalous wave driving between the two cases, though other processes may be in play. We exploit these different influences to produce a skillful forecast model of subseasonal NH surface temperatures using both sea ice and snow cover as predictors, with large gains in skills in January. Overall, our study suggests that the Arctic has a demonstrable and detectable influence on midlatitude winter weather in the present and likely future climate. © 2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84979465998&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL068108&partnerID=40&md5=5915c541a520e27883862903dd391979
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10080
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States
Recommended Citation:
Furtado J.C.,Cohen J.L.,Tziperman E.. The combined influences of autumnal snow and sea ice on Northern Hemisphere winters[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(7).