DOI: 10.1002/2016GL067997
论文题名: Impact of rising greenhouse gas concentrations on future tropical ozone and UV exposure
作者: Meul S. ; Dameris M. ; Langematz U. ; Abalichin J. ; Kerschbaumer A. ; Kubin A. ; Oberländer-Hayn S.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9237
EISSN: 1944-8968
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 6 起始页码: 2919
结束页码: 2927
语种: 英语
英文关键词: chemistry-climate model
; climate change
; RCP scenarios
; Tropical ozone
; UV exposure
Scopus关键词: Chemical analysis
; Climate change
; Gas emissions
; Greenhouse gases
; Ozone
; Tropics
; Troposphere
; Chemistry-climate models
; Future projections
; Ozone depleting substances
; RCP scenarios
; Scenario simulations
; Tropospheric ozone
; Ultraviolet irradiance
; UV exposure
; Climate models
; atmospheric chemistry
; climate change
; climate modeling
; column
; concentration (composition)
; emission inventory
; future prospect
; greenhouse gas
; irradiance
; ozone
; radiation exposure
; tropical region
; ultraviolet radiation
英文摘要: Future projections of tropical total column ozone (TCO) are challenging, as its evolution is affected not only by the expected decline of ozone depleting substances but also by the uncertain increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To assess the range of tropical TCO projections, we analyze simulations with a chemistry-climate model forced by three different GHG scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). We find that tropical TCO will be lower by the end of the 21st century compared to the 1960s in all scenarios with the largest decrease in the medium RCP6.0 scenario. Uncertainties of the projected TCO changes arise from the magnitude of stratospheric column decrease and tropospheric ozone increase which both strongly vary between the scenarios. In the three scenario simulations the stratospheric column decrease is not compensated by the increase in tropospheric ozone. The concomitant increase in harmful ultraviolet irradiance reaches up to 15% in specific regions in the RCP6.0 scenario. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84978322033&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL067997&partnerID=40&md5=8a4fed2806504d021fbcc4312d38c17b
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10200
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Meul S.,Dameris M.,Langematz U.,et al. Impact of rising greenhouse gas concentrations on future tropical ozone and UV exposure[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(6).