DOI: 10.1002/2016GL067740
论文题名: Stochastic and anthropogenic influences on repeated record-breaking temperature extremes in Australian spring of 2013 and 2014
作者: Gallant A.J.E. ; Lewis S.C.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9277
EISSN: 1944-9008
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 5 起始页码: 2182
结束页码: 2191
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; climate change processes
; extreme event attribution
; temperature
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Stochastic systems
; Temperature
; Anthropogenic influence
; Anthropogenic warming
; Change process
; Climate model simulations
; Extreme events
; Extreme temperatures
; Interannual variability
; Temperature extremes
; Climate change
英文摘要: We examine the contribution of synoptic and interannual processes and anthropogenic warming to repeated record-breaking warmth in the Australian spring of 2013 and 2014. Climatic conditions similar to those in 2013 and 2014 have occurred in the past, the regional and large-scale interannual processes associated with these extreme temperatures were not unusual, and the repetition of the very warm temperatures is likely to be a function of stochastic interannual variability. However, analysis using observations and climate model simulations shows that without an anthropogenically driven warming trend, it is unlikely that the 2013 and 2014 temperature anomalies would have been consecutively record breaking. Climate models demonstrate that the likelihood of consecutive record-breaking spring temperatures similar to 2013 and 2014 changes from < 1% in simulations using natural forcing only to between 11% and 25% for the period 2006-2020 using simulations containing both natural and anthropogenic forcings. © 2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84960336635&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL067740&partnerID=40&md5=9575a9aed74a87f8b1a001d1a70dcd11
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10240
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Gallant A.J.E.,Lewis S.C.. Stochastic and anthropogenic influences on repeated record-breaking temperature extremes in Australian spring of 2013 and 2014[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(5).