globalchange  > 科学计划与规划
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL067765
论文题名:
Predictability of horizontal water vapor transport relative to precipitation: Enhancing situational awareness for forecasting western U.S. extreme precipitation and flooding
作者: Lavers D.A.; Waliser D.E.; Ralph F.M.; Dettinger M.D.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9294
EISSN: 1944-9025
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期:5
起始页码: 2275
结束页码: 2282
语种: 英语
英文关键词: atmospheric rivers ; hydrological extremes ; predictability
Scopus关键词: Floods ; Precipitation (meteorology) ; Rivers ; Water vapor ; Extreme precipitation ; Geo-potential heights ; Hydrological extremes ; National centers for environmental predictions ; Predictability ; Situational awareness ; Water vapor transport ; Western United States ; Forecasting
英文摘要: The western United States is vulnerable to socioeconomic disruption due to extreme winter precipitation and floods. Traditionally, forecasts of precipitation and river discharge provide the basis for preparations. Herein we show that earlier event awareness may be possible through use of horizontal water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)) forecasts. Applying the potential predictability concept to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction global ensemble reforecasts, across 31 winters, IVT is found to be more predictable than precipitation. IVT ensemble forecasts with the smallest spreads (least forecast uncertainty) are associated with initiation states with anomalously high geopotential heights south of Alaska, a setup conducive for anticyclonic conditions and weak IVT into the western United States. IVT ensemble forecasts with the greatest spreads (most forecast uncertainty) have initiation states with anomalously low geopotential heights south of Alaska and correspond to atmospheric rivers. The greater IVT predictability could provide warnings of impending storminess with additional lead times for hydrometeorological applications. © 2016. The Authors.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84960419088&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL067765&partnerID=40&md5=015bea1575f74e59b5a85c1f7067cc20
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10257
Appears in Collections:科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, San Diego, California, United States

Recommended Citation:
Lavers D.A.,Waliser D.E.,Ralph F.M.,et al. Predictability of horizontal water vapor transport relative to precipitation: Enhancing situational awareness for forecasting western U.S. extreme precipitation and flooding[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(5).
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