DOI: 10.1002/2015GL067326
论文题名: Bias in streamflow projections due to climate-induced shifts in catchment response
作者: Saft M. ; Peel M.C. ; Western A.W. ; Perraud J.-M. ; Zhang L.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9343
EISSN: 1944-9074
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 4 起始页码: 1574
结束页码: 1581
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate impact
; cross validation
; drought
; rainfall-runoff modeling
; runoff
; streamflow
Scopus关键词: Catchments
; Climate models
; Drought
; Rain
; Runoff
; Stream flow
; Climate change impact
; Climate impacts
; Cross validation
; Quantitative assessments
; Rainfall-runoff modeling
; Rainfall-runoff models
; Rainfall-runoff process
; Rainfall-runoff relationship
; Climate change
; catchment
; climate change
; climate effect
; drought stress
; model validation
; optimization
; rainfall-runoff modeling
; streamflow
; water availability
英文摘要: Demand for quantitative assessments of likely climate change impact on runoff is increasing and conceptual rainfall-runoff models are essential tools for this task. However, the capacity of these models to extrapolate under changing climatic conditions is questionable. A number of studies have found that model predictive skill decreases with changed climatic conditions, especially when predicting drier climates. We found that model skill only declines under certain circumstances, in particular, when a catchment's rainfall-runoff processes change due to changed climatic drivers. In catchments where the rainfall-runoff relationship changed significantly in response to prolonged dry conditions, runoff was consistently overestimated. In contrast, modeled runoff was unbiased in catchments where the rainfall-runoff relationship remained unchanged during the dry period. These conclusions were not model dependent. Our results suggest that current projections of runoff under climate change may provide overly optimistic assessments of future water availability in some regions expecting rainfall reductions. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84976210615&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL067326&partnerID=40&md5=4b376515c2a1ac52fcf88f01aad5cda6
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10306
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Infrastructure Engineering, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Saft M.,Peel M.C.,Western A.W.,et al. Bias in streamflow projections due to climate-induced shifts in catchment response[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(4).