| DOI: | 10.1002/2015GL066686
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| 论文题名: | Short-term probabilistic earthquake risk assessment considering time-dependent b values |
| 作者: | Gulia L.; Tormann T.; Wiemer S.; Herrmann M.; Seif S.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-9394
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| EISSN: | 1944-9125
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| 出版年: | 2016
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| 卷: | 43, 期:3 | | 起始页码: | 1100
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| 结束页码: | 1108
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | aftershocks
; b value
; cost-benefit analysis
; forecast models
; foreshocks
; risk assessment
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| Scopus关键词: | Cost effectiveness
; Costs
; Earthquake effects
; Earthquakes
; Probability
; Risk assessment
; Aftershocks
; B value
; FORECAST model
; Foreshocks
; Laboratory experiments
; Short-term forecasts
; Stress increase
; Temporal change
; Cost benefit analysis
; aftershock
; earthquake event
; forecasting method
; foreshock
; hazard assessment
; probability
; risk assessment
; seismicity
; Abruzzi
; Italy
; L'Aquila
; Aquila
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| 英文摘要: | Laboratory experiments highlight a systematic b value decrease during the stress increase period before failure, and some large natural events are known to show a precursory decrease in the b value. However, short-term forecast models currently consider only the generic probability that an event can trigger subsequent seismicity in the near field. While the probability increase over a stationary Poissonian background is substantial, selected case studies have shown through cost-benefit analysis that the absolute main shock probability remains too low to warrant significant mitigation actions. We analyze the probabilities considering both changes in the seismicity rates and temporal changes in the b value. The precursory b value decrease in the 2009 L'Aquila case results in an additional fiftyfold probability increase for a M6.3 event. Translated into time-varying hazard and risk, these changes surpass the cost-benefit threshold for short-term evacuation. © 2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84981365476&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL066686&partnerID=40&md5=317dd6c04d1f5eacd96b9ab6cd4771cb
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10357
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Gulia L.,Tormann T.,Wiemer S.,et al. Short-term probabilistic earthquake risk assessment considering time-dependent b values[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(3).
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