DOI: 10.1002/2015GL067392
论文题名: A projection of changes in landfalling atmospheric river frequency and extreme precipitation over western North America from the Large Ensemble CESM simulations
作者: Hagos S.M. ; Leung L.R. ; Yoon J.-H. ; Lu J. ; Gao Y.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9402
EISSN: 1944-9133
出版年: 2016
卷: 43, 期: 3 起始页码: 1357
结束页码: 1363
语种: 英语
英文关键词: atmospheric rivers
; climate change
; extreme precipitation
; flooding
; global warming
; moisture transport
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric movements
; Climate change
; Global warming
; Moisture
; Oil well flooding
; Rivers
; Earth system model
; Extreme precipitation
; Internal variability
; Landfalling
; Model bias
; Modeling project
; Moisture transport
; Subtropical jet
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; atmospheric circulation
; atmospheric modeling
; climate change
; ensemble forecasting
; extreme event
; flooding
; frequency analysis
; global warming
; jet flow
; moisture transfer
; precipitation intensity
; water vapor
; North America
英文摘要: Simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble project are analyzed to investigate the impact of global warming on atmospheric rivers (ARs) making landfall in western North America. The model has notable biases in simulating the subtropical jet position and the relationship between extreme precipitation and moisture transport. After accounting for these biases, the model projects an ensemble mean increase of 35% in the number of landfalling AR days between the last 20 years of the twentieth and 21st centuries under Representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). However, the associated extreme precipitation days increase only by 28% because the moisture transport required to produce extreme precipitation also increases with warming. Internal variability introduces an uncertainty of ±8% and ±7% in the changes in AR days and associated extreme precipitation days compared to only about 1% difference from accountings for model biases. The significantly larger mean changes compared to internal variability, and effects of model biases highlight the robust AR responses to global warming. © 2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84969375505&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL067392&partnerID=40&md5=bc97a222c7cf60a6363ea8f4644933f4
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10365
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Hagos S.M.,Leung L.R.,Yoon J.-H.,et al. A projection of changes in landfalling atmospheric river frequency and extreme precipitation over western North America from the Large Ensemble CESM simulations[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(3).