| DOI: | 10.1002/2015GL066928
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| 论文题名: | Seasonal climate forecasts significantly affected by observational uncertainty of Arctic sea ice concentration |
| 作者: | Bunzel F.; Notz D.; Baehr J.; Müller W.A.; Fröhlich K.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-9433
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| EISSN: | 1944-9164
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| 出版年: | 2016
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| 卷: | 43, 期:2 | | 起始页码: | 852
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| 结束页码: | 859
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Arctic sea ice
; data assimilation
; observational uncertainties
; seasonal climate prediction
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| Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric temperature
; Climatology
; Forecasting
; NASA
; Sea ice
; Surface properties
; Arctic sea ice
; Bootstrap algorithms
; Data assimilation
; Max Planck Institute
; Observational uncertainties
; Sea ice concentration
; Seasonal climate forecast
; Seasonal climate prediction
; Ice
; bootstrapping
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; data assimilation
; hindcasting
; observational method
; satellite data
; sea ice
; season
; surface temperature
; uncertainty analysis
; Arctic Ocean
; Europe
; North America
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| 英文摘要: | We investigate how observational uncertainty in satellite-retrieved sea ice concentrations affects seasonal climate predictions. To do so, we initialize hindcast simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model every 1 May and 1 November from 1981 to 2011 with two different sea ice concentration data sets, one based on the NASA Team and one on the Bootstrap algorithm. For hindcasts started in November, initial differences in Arctic sea ice area and surface temperature decrease rapidly throughout the freezing period. For hindcasts started in May, initial differences in sea ice area increase over time. By the end of the melting period, this causes significant differences in 2 meter air temperature of regionally more than 3°C. Hindcast skill for surface temperatures over Europe and North America is higher with Bootstrap initialization during summer and with NASA Team initialization during winter. This implies that the observational uncertainty also affects forecasts of teleconnections that depend on northern hemispheric climate indices. © 2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84956667746&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL066928&partnerID=40&md5=6545b0338746bf1d4d902a4235aff389
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/10396
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Ocean in the Earth System, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Bunzel F.,Notz D.,Baehr J.,et al. Seasonal climate forecasts significantly affected by observational uncertainty of Arctic sea ice concentration[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2016-01-01,43(2).
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